Monitoring SEIRD model parameters using MEWMA for the COVID-19 pandemic with application to the state of Qatar

DOI10.1080/02664763.2021.1985091MaRDI QIDQ6099320zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors

Publication date 19 June 2023

Published in Journal of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2101.12642

zbMATH Keywords

augmented particle Markov chain Monte CarloCOVID-19epidemiologymultivariate exponentially weighted moving averageprocess monitoring

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Statistics (62-XX)

Abstract: During the current COVID-19 pandemic, decision makers are tasked with implementing and evaluating strategies for both treatment and disease prevention. In order to make effective decisions, they need to simultaneously monitor various attributes of the pandemic such as transmission rate and infection rate for disease prevention, recovery rate which indicates treatment effectiveness as well as the mortality rate and others. This work presents a technique for monitoring the pandemic by employing an Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered Death model regularly estimated by an augmented particle Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme in which the posterior distribution samples are monitored via Multivariate Exponentially Weighted Average process monitoring. This is illustrated on the COVID-19 data for the State of Qatar.

Cites work

• A Multivariate Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Control Chart
• Bayesian analysis for emerging infectious diseases
• Bayesian estimation of the basic reproduction number in stochastic epidemic models
• Forecasting and planning during a pandemic: COVID-19 growth rates, supply chain disruptions, and governmental decisions

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