Optimal vaccination in a SIRS epidemic model

DOI10.1007/S00199-022-01475-9MaRDI QIDQ6131948zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors

Publication date 18 April 2024

Published in Economic Theory (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.03284

zbMATH Keywords

epidemicnon-smooth verification theoremoptimal controloptimal vaccinationSIRS modelviscosity solution

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Optimality conditions for problems involving ordinary differential equations (49K15) Viscosity solutions to Hamilton-Jacobi equations in optimal control and differential games (49L25) Medical epidemiology (92C60)

Abstract: We propose and solve an optimal vaccination problem within a deterministic compartmental model of SIRS type: the immunized population can become susceptible again, e.g. because of a not complete immunization power of the vaccine. A social planner thus aims at reducing the number of susceptible individuals via a vaccination campaign, while minimizing the social and economic costs related to the infectious disease. As a theoretical contribution, we provide a technical non-smooth verification theorem, guaranteeing that a semiconcave viscosity solution to the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation identifies with the minimal cost function, provided that the closed-loop equation admits a solution. Conditions under which the closed-loop equation is well-posed are then derived by borrowing results from the theory of emph{Regular Lagrangian Flows}. From the applied point of view, we provide a numerical implementation of the model in a case study with quadratic instantaneous costs. Amongst other conclusions, we observe that in the long-run the optimal vaccination policy is able to keep the percentage of infected to zero, at least when the natural reproduction number and the reinfection rate are small.

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Cited in

(9)

• Optimality of vaccination for an SIR epidemic with an ICU constraint
• Optimality of vaccination for prevalence-constrained SIRS epidemics
• Partial regularity of semiconvex viscosity supersolutions to fully nonlinear elliptic HJB equations and applications to stochastic control
• Pattern-preserving optimal control problems with increasing time horizon
• The economic cost of social distancing during a pandemic: an optimal control approach in the SVIR model
• Oscillation in the SIRS model
• Optimal control in infinite-dimensional spaces and economic modeling: state of the art and perspectives
• The effect of time delay on the dynamics of a fractional-order epidemic model
• Compartmental models in epidemiology: bridging the gap with operations research for enhanced epidemic control

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