How efficient is contact tracing in mitigating the spread of COVID-19? A mathematical modeling approach

DOI10.1016/J.APM.2021.11.011MaRDI QIDQ6135612zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors T. A. Biala, Y. O. Afolabi, A. Q. M. Khaliq

Publication date 25 August 2023

Published in Applied Mathematical Modelling (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2008.03859

zbMATH Keywords

COVID-19contact tracingSEIR modeltime fractional-order models

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30)

Abstract: Contact Tracing (CT) is one of the measures taken by government and health officials to mitigate the spread of the novel coronavirus. In this paper, we investigate its efficacy by developing a compartmental model for assessing its impact on mitigating the spread of the virus. We describe the impact on the reproduction number $mathcal{R}_0$ of COVID-19. In particular, we discuss the importance and relevance of parameters of the model such as the number of reported cases, effectiveness of tracking and monitoring policy, and the transmission rates to contact tracing. We describe the terms "perfect tracking", "perfect monitoring" and "perfect reporting" to indicate that traced contacts will be tracked while incubating, tracked contacts are efficiently monitored so that they do not cause secondary infections, and all infected persons are reported, respectively. We consider three special scenarios: (1) perfect monitoring and perfect tracking of contacts of a reported case, (2) perfect reporting of cases and perfect monitoring of tracked reported cases and (3) perfect reporting and perfect tracking of contacts of reported cases. Furthermore, we gave a lower bound on the proportion of contacts to be traced to ensure that the effective reproduction, $mathcal{R}_c$, is below one and describe $mathcal{R}_c$ in terms of observable quantities such as the proportion of reported and traced cases. Model simulations using the COVID-19 data obtained from John Hopkins University for some selected states in the US suggest that even late intervention of CT may reasonably reduce the transmission of COVID-19 and reduce peak hospitalizations and deaths.

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Cited in

(10)

• An analysis of contact tracing protocol in an over-dispersed SEIQR Covid-like disease
• Dynamic analysis of a delayed differential equation for \textit{Tropidothorax elegans} pests
• Contact tracing and antiviral prophylaxis in the early stages of a pandemic: the probability of a major outbreak
• Dynamical analysis of a stochastic delayed epidemic model with Lévy jumps and regime switching
• Global stability and analysing the sensitivity of parameters of a multiple-susceptible population model of SARS-CoV-2 emphasising vaccination drive
• Dynamics of transmission of a monkeypox epidemic in the presence of an imperfect vaccination
• Assessing the impact of contact tracing, quarantine and red zone on the dynamical evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic using the cellular automata approach and the resulting mean field system: a case study in Mauritius
• Fractional dynamic analysis and optimal control problem for an SEIQR model on complex networks
• Complex dynamics and fractional-order optimal control of an epidemic model with saturated treatment and incidence
• Modeling the effects of contact tracing on COVID-19 transmission

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