Modeling contact tracing in outbreaks with application to Ebola

DOI10.1016/J.JTBI.2015.08.004zbMATH Open1343.92462arXiv1505.03821OpenAlexW2964006576WikidataQ40142254 ScholiaQ40142254MaRDI QIDQ739714FDOQ739714

Authors: Cameron J. Browne, Hayriye Gulbudak, Glenn Webb 

Publication date: 19 August 2016

Published in: Journal of Theoretical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Contact tracing is an important control strategy for containing Ebola epidemics. From a theoretical perspective, explicitly incorporating contact tracing with disease dynamics presents challenges, and population level effects of contact tracing are difficult to determine. In this work, we formulate and analyze a mechanistic SEIR type outbreak model which considers the key features of contact tracing, and we characterize the impact of contact tracing on the effective reproduction number, $mathcal{R}_e$, of Ebola. In particular, we determine how relevant epidemiological properties such as incubation period, infectious period and case reporting, along with varying monitoring protocols, affect the efficacy of contact tracing. In the special cases of either perfect monitoring of traced cases or perfect reporting of all cases, we derive simple formulae for the critical proportion of contacts that need to be traced in order to bring the effective reproduction number $mathcal{R}_e$ below one. Also, in either case, we show that $mathcal{R}_e$ can be expressed completely in terms of observable reported case/tracing quantities, namely $mathcal{R}_e=kdfrac(1-q)q+k_m$ where $k$ is the number of secondary traced infected contacts per primary untraced reported case, $k_m$ is the number of secondary traced infected contacts per primary traced reported case and $(1-q)/q$ is the odds that a reported case is not a traced contact. These formulae quantify contact tracing as both an intervention strategy that impacts disease spread and a probe into the current epidemic status at the population level. Data from the West Africa Ebola outbreak is utilized to form real-time estimates of $mathcal{R}_e$, and inform our projections of the impact of contact tracing, and other control measures, on the epidemic trajectory.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1505.03821

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zbMATH Keywords

epidemiologycontact tracingmathematical modelingEbola

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30)

Cites Work

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Cited In (23)

• General epidemiological models: law of large numbers and contact tracing
• Assessing the effects of modeling the spectrum of clinical symptoms on the dynamics and control of Ebola
• Evaluations of interventions using mathematical models with exponential and non-exponential distributions for disease stages: the case of Ebola
• Contact tracing \& super-spreaders in the branching-process model
• Sensitivity analysis in an immuno-epidemiological vector-host model
• The potential impact of a prophylactic vaccine for Ebola in Sierra Leone
• Modeling the effects of contact tracing on COVID-19 transmission
• Mathematical models of Ebola -- consequences of underlying assumptions
• Contact tracing in stochastic and deterministic epidemic models
• A note on observation processes in epidemic models
• How efficient is contact tracing in mitigating the spread of COVID-19? A mathematical modeling approach
• Modeling of contact tracing in social networks
• Estimating the Tracing Probability from Contact History at the Onset of an Epidemic
• Differential impacts of contact tracing and lockdowns on outbreak size in COVID-19 model applied to China
• Efficacy of control measures in the control of Ebola, Liberia 2014–2015
• Assessing potential insights of an imperfect testing strategy: parameter estimation and practical identifiability using early COVID-19 data in India
• Respect the Unstable: Delays and Saturation in Contact Tracing for Disease Control
• An Ensemble Trajectory Method for Real-Time Modeling and Prediction of Unfolding Epidemics: Analysis of the 2005 Marburg Fever Outbreak in Angola
• A model of the Ebola epidemics in West Africa incorporating age of infection
• A microscopic approach to study the onset of a highly infectious disease spreading
• Predicting COVID-19 using past pandemics as a guide: how reliable were mathematical models then, and how reliable will they be now?
• Contact tracing and antiviral prophylaxis in the early stages of a pandemic: the probability of a major outbreak
• Quantifying the impact of early-stage contact tracing on controlling Ebola diffusion

Uses Software

• EpiEstim

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