The estimation of the effective reproductive number from disease outbreak data

DOI10.3934/MBE.2009.6.261zbMATH Open1166.62080arXiv2004.06827OpenAlexW2092883923WikidataQ33429689 ScholiaQ33429689MaRDI QIDQ2390595FDOQ2390595

Authors: Ariel Cintrón-Arias, Carlos Castillo-Chavez, L. M. A. Bettencourt, Alun L. Lloyd, H. Thomas Banks 

Publication date: 30 July 2009

Published in: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We consider a single outbreak susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and corresponding estimation procedures for the effective reproductive number $mathcalR(t)$. We discuss the estimation of the underlying SIR parameters with a generalized least squares (GLS) estimation technique. We do this in the context of appropriate statistical models for the measurement process. We use asymptotic statistical theories to derive the mean and variance of the limiting (Gaussian) sampling distribution and to perform post statistical analysis of the inverse problems. We illustrate the ideas and pitfalls (e.g., large condition numbers on the corresponding Fisher information matrix) with both synthetic and influenza incidence data sets.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.06827

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zbMATH Keywords

parameter estimationbasic reproduction ratioreproduction numbergeneralized least squaresresidual plotseffective reproductive number\(\mathcal{R}\mathcal{R}_0\)\mathcal{R}(t)

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Estimation in survival analysis and censored data (62N02) Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10) Epidemiology (92D30) Asymptotic distribution theory in statistics (62E20) Non-Markovian processes: estimation (62M09) Dynamical systems in biology (37N25)

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Uses Software

• fminsearch

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