Spatiotemporal local interpolation of global ocean heat transport using argo floats: a debiased latent Gaussian process approach
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Publication:6161887
Abstract: The world ocean plays a key role in redistributing heat in the climate system and hence in regulating Earth's climate. Yet statistical analysis of ocean heat transport suffers from partially incomplete large-scale data intertwined with complex spatio-temporal dynamics, as well as from potential model misspecification. We present a comprehensive spatio-temporal statistical framework tailored to interpolating the global ocean heat transport using in-situ Argo profiling float measurements. We formalize the statistical challenges using latent local Gaussian process regression accompanied by a two-stage fitting procedure. We introduce an approximate Expectation-Maximization algorithm to jointly estimate both the mean field and the covariance parameters, and refine the potentially under-specified mean field model with a debiasing procedure. This approach provides data-driven global ocean heat transport fields that vary in both space and time and can provide insights into crucial dynamical phenomena, such as El Ni{~n}o & La Ni{~n}a, as well as the global climatological mean heat transport field, which by itself is of scientific interest. The proposed framework and the Argo-based estimates are thoroughly validated with state-of-the-art multimission satellite products and shown to yield realistic subsurface ocean heat transport estimates.
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Cited in
(4)- Estimating high-resolution red sea surface temperature hotspots, using a low-rank semiparametric spatial model
- A functional regression model for heterogeneous BioGeoChemical Argo data in the Southern Ocean
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