A Markovian model for the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus

DOI10.1016/J.AUTOMATICA.2023.110921zbMATH Open1521.92093arXiv2204.11317OpenAlexW4320922063MaRDI QIDQ6164030FDOQ6164030

Authors: Luigi Palopoli, Daniele Fontanelli, Marco Frego, Marco Roveri 

Publication date: 30 June 2023

Published in: Automatica (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We propose a Markovian stochastic approach to model the spread of a SARS-CoV-2-like infection within a closed group of humans. The model takes the form of a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP), whose states are given by the number of subjects in different health conditions. The model also exposes the different parameters that have an impact on the spread of the disease and the various decision variables that can be used to control it (e.g, social distancing, number of tests administered to single out infected subjects). The model describes the stochastic phenomena that underlie the spread of the epidemic and captures, in the form of deterministic parameters, some fundamental limitations in the availability of resources (hospital beds and test swabs). The model lends itself to different uses. For a given control policy, it is possible to verify if it satisfies an analytical property on the stochastic evolution of the state (e.g., to compute probability that the hospital beds will reach a fill level, or that a specified percentage of the population will die). If the control policy is not given, it is possible to apply POMDP techniques to identify an optimal control policy that fulfils some specified probabilistic goals. Whilst the paper primarily aims at the model description, we show with numeric examples some of its potential applications.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2204.11317

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zbMATH Keywords

stochastic systemsvirusSARS-CoV-2healthcare managementmodelling and control of biomedical systems

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Markov and semi-Markov decision processes (90C40)

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Cited In (9)

• A Continuous-Time Markov Chain Model for the Spread of COVID-19
• Decision making model of emerging epidemics control based on Markov decision processes
• A non-homogeneous Markov early epidemic growth dynamics model. Application to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic
• Coupling compartmental models with Markov chains and measure evolution equations to capture virus mutability
• A novel high-order multivariate Markov model for spatiotemporal analysis with application to COVID-19 outbreak
• Microscopic Markov Chain Approach for Measuring Mobility Driven SARS-CoV-2 Transmission
• Absorbing Markov chains for analyzing COVID-19 infections
• Dynamics of a stochastic coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic model with Markovian switching
• Individual-based Markov model of virus diffusion: comparison with COVID-19 incubation period, serial interval and regional time series

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