Stability of epidemic models over directed graphs: A positive systems approach

DOI10.1016/J.AUTOMATICA.2016.07.037zbMATH Open1348.93226arXiv1407.6076OpenAlexW2964101545MaRDI QIDQ340647FDOQ340647

Authors: Ali Khanafer, Tamer Başar, Bahman Gharesifard 

Publication date: 14 November 2016

Published in: Automatica (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We study the stability properties of a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) diffusion model, so-called the $n$-intertwined Markov model, over arbitrary directed network topologies. As in the majority of the work on infection spread dynamics, this model exhibits a threshold phenomenon. When the curing rates in the network are high, the disease-free state is the unique equilibrium over the network. Otherwise, an endemic equilibrium state emerges, where some infection remains within the network. Using notions from positive systems theory, {we provide novel proofs for the global asymptotic stability of the equilibrium points in both cases over strongly connected networks based on the value of the basic reproduction number, a fundamental quantity in the study of epidemics.} When the network topology is weakly connected, we provide conditions for the existence, uniqueness, and global asymptotic stability of an endemic state, and we study the stability of the disease-free state. Finally, we demonstrate that the $n$-intertwined Markov model can be viewed as a best-response dynamical system of a concave game among the nodes. This characterization allows us to cast new infection spread dynamics; additionally, we provide a sufficient condition for the global convergence to the disease-free state, which can be checked in a distributed fashion. Several simulations demonstrate our results.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1407.6076

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zbMATH Keywords

networksinterconnected systemsstability analysisdirected graphsnonlinear control systems

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Markov chains (discrete-time Markov processes on discrete state spaces) (60J10) Applications of game theory (91A80) Asymptotic stability in control theory (93D20)

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Cited In (24)

• Competitive pricing under local network effects
• Mean-Field Approximations for Stochastic Population Processes with Heterogeneous Interactions
• Dynamic behaviour of competing memes' spread with alert influence in multiplex social-networks
• Mathematical analysis of the impact of transmission-blocking drugs on the population dynamics of malaria
• N-intertwined SIS epidemic model with Markovian switching
• Analysis and stabilization of discrete-time positive systems with input saturation
• Towards understanding the endemic behavior of a competitive tri-virus SIS networked model
• Contagion and supervision of liquidity crisis in interbank markets: based on the SIS network model
• Epidemic spread on one-way circular-coupled networks
• The \(N\)-intertwined SIS epidemic network model
• Time-dependent solution of the NIMFA equations around the epidemic threshold
• Incentive rate determination in viral marketing
• Credit risk contagion and optimal dual control -- an SIS/R model
• On the competition of two conflicting messages
• Optimal curing resource allocation for epidemic spreading processes
• Graph-Theoretic Stability Conditions for Metzler Matrices and Monotone Systems
• Multi-competitive viruses over time-varying networks with mutations and human awareness
• Competitive networked bi-virus spread: existence of coexistence equilibria
• Modeling and analysis of a coupled SIS bi-virus model
• Event-triggered network-based state observer design of positive systems
• An SIS network model with flow driven infection rates
• Interplay of node connectivity and epidemic rates in the dynamics of epidemic networks
• Contraction analysis of virtually positive systems
• A Markovian model for the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus

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