On SIR-type epidemiological models and population heterogeneity effects

DOI10.1016/J.PHYSA.2023.128928arXiv2210.11342OpenAlexW4378571850MaRDI QIDQ6175293FDOQ6175293

Authors: Silke Klemm, Lucrezia Ravera 

Publication date: 21 July 2023

Published in: Physica A (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: In this paper we elaborate on homogeneous and heterogeneous SIR-type epidemiological models. We find an unexpected correspondence between the epidemic trajectory of a transmissible disease in a homogeneous SIR-type model and radial null geodesics in the Schwarzschild spacetime. We also discuss modeling of population heterogeneity effects by considering both a one- and two-parameter gamma-distributed function for the initial susceptibility distribution, and deriving the associated herd immunity threshold. We furthermore describe how mitigation measures can be taken into account by model fitting.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.11342

zbMATH Keywords

epidemiologystatistical mechanicsSIR modelsepidemiology and analogue gravitymathematical methods for physicsstatistical methods for epidemiology

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Statistical mechanics, structure of matter (82-XX)

Cites Work

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Cited In (4)

• Convergence results in SIR epidemic models with varying population sizes
• Varying total population enhances disease persistence: qualitative analysis on a diffusive SIS epidemic model
• Aggregation and asymptotic analysis of anSI-epidemic model for heterogeneous populations
• Some results on a SIRS epidemic model with subpopulations

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