On SIR-type epidemiological models and population heterogeneity effects

DOI10.1016/J.PHYSA.2023.128928MaRDI QIDQ6175293zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Silke Klemm, Lucrezia Ravera

Publication date 21 July 2023

Published in Physica A (Search for Journal in Brave)

Copyright license Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.11342

zbMATH Keywords

epidemiologystatistical mechanicsSIR modelsepidemiology and analogue gravitymathematical methods for physicsstatistical methods for epidemiology

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Statistical mechanics, structure of matter (82-XX)

Abstract: In this paper we elaborate on homogeneous and heterogeneous SIR-type epidemiological models. We find an unexpected correspondence between the epidemic trajectory of a transmissible disease in a homogeneous SIR-type model and radial null geodesics in the Schwarzschild spacetime. We also discuss modeling of population heterogeneity effects by considering both a one- and two-parameter gamma-distributed function for the initial susceptibility distribution, and deriving the associated herd immunity threshold. We furthermore describe how mitigation measures can be taken into account by model fitting.

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Cited in

(4)

• Convergence results in SIR epidemic models with varying population sizes
• Some results on a SIRS epidemic model with subpopulations
• Aggregation and asymptotic analysis of anSI-epidemic model for heterogeneous populations
• Varying total population enhances disease persistence: qualitative analysis on a diffusive SIS epidemic model

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