Fractality of profit landscapes and validation of time series models for stock prices

DOI10.1140/EPJB/E2013-31116-3MaRDI QIDQ6176837zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Il Gu Yi, Gabjin Oh, Beom Jun Kim

Publication date 26 July 2023

Published in The European Physical Journal B. Condensed Matter and Complex Systems (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1308.1749

zbMATH Keywords

statistical and nonlinear physics

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Economic time series analysis (91B84)

Abstract: We apply a simple trading strategy for various time series of real and artificial stock prices to understand the origin of fractality observed in the resulting profit landscapes. The strategy contains only two parameters $p$ and $q$, and the sell (buy) decision is made when the log return is larger (smaller) than $p$ ($-q$). We discretize the unit square $(p,q)in[0,1]imes[0,1]$ into the $NimesN$ square grid and the profit $Pi(p,q)$ is calculated at the center of each cell. We confirm the previous finding that local maxima in profit landscapes are scattered in a fractal-like fashion: The number M of local maxima follows the power-law form $Msim{N}^a$, but the scaling exponent $a$ is found to differ for different time series. From comparisons of real and artificial stock prices, we find that the fat-tailed return distribution is closely related to the exponent $aapprox1.6$ observed for real stock markets. We suggest that the fractality of profit landscape characterized by $aapprox1.6$ can be a useful measure to validate time series model for stock prices.

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Cites work

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Cited in

(2)

• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 5000898 (Why is no real title available?)
• Goodness of fit assessment for a fractal model of stock markets

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