Variational inference for cutting feedback in misspecified models

DOI10.1214/23-STS886arXiv2108.11066MaRDI QIDQ6181748FDOQ6181748

Authors: Xuejun Yu, David J. Nott, Michael Stanley Smith 

Publication date: 23 January 2024

Published in: Statistical Science (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Bayesian analyses combine information represented by different terms in a joint Bayesian model. When one or more of the terms is misspecified, it can be helpful to restrict the use of information from suspect model components to modify posterior inference. This is called "cutting feedback", and both the specification and computation of the posterior for such "cut models" is challenging. In this paper, we define cut posterior distributions as solutions to constrained optimization problems, and propose optimization-based variational methods for their computation. These methods are faster than existing Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches for computing cut posterior distributions by an order of magnitude. It is also shown that variational methods allow for the evaluation of computationally intensive conflict checks that can be used to decide whether or not feedback should be cut. Our methods are illustrated in a number of simulated and real examples, including an application where recent methodological advances that combine variational inference and MCMC within the variational optimization are used.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2108.11066

zbMATH Keywords

model misspecificationcutting feedbackBayesian model criticismmodular inference

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Statistics (62-XX)

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