Bayesian Calibration of Computer Models

From MaRDI portal
Publication:2767526

DOI10.1111/1467-9868.00294zbMath1007.62021OpenAlexW1973333099WikidataQ58852147 ScholiaQ58852147MaRDI QIDQ2767526

Anthony O'Hagan, Marc C. Kennedy

Publication date: 26 March 2003

Published in: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Statistical Methodology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9868.00294



Related Items

Bayesian Projected Calibration of Computer Models, On global normal linear approximations for nonlinear Bayesian inverse problems, Learning physics-based models from data: perspectives from inverse problems and model reduction, Surrogate Modeling with Gaussian Processes for an Inverse Problem in Polymer Dynamics, A surrogate-assisted uncertainty-aware Bayesian validation framework and its application to coupling free flow and porous-medium flow, Saving storage in climate ensembles: a model-based stochastic approach, Discussion of ``Saving storage in climate ensembles: a model-based stochastic approach, Fast Calibration for Computer Models with Massive Physical Observations, Statistical Implementations of Agent‐Based Demographic Models, Modeling 3‐D spatio‐temporal biogeochemical processes with a forest of 1‐D statistical emulators, Intercorrelated random fields with bounds and the Bayesian identification of their parameters: Application to linear elastic struts and fibers, Subset simulation for probabilistic computer models, Stochastic modeling and statistical calibration with model error and scarce data, Data‐driven physics‐based digital twins via a library of component‐based reduced‐order models, Probabilistic neural data fusion for learning from an arbitrary number of multi-fidelity data sets, Hyper-differential sensitivity analysis with respect to model discrepancy: optimal solution updating, Efficient prediction of turbulent flow quantities using a Bayesian hierarchical multifidelity model, Updating an uncertain and expensive computational model in structural dynamics based on one single target FRF using a probabilistic learning tool, Evaluation of dual-weighted residual and machine learning error estimation for projection-based reduced-order models of steady partial differential equations, Solving an inverse problem for time-series-valued computer simulators via multiple contour estimation, Scaling Up Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification for Inverse Problems Using Deep Neural Networks, Calibration of Inexact Computer Models with Heteroscedastic Errors, A Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space Approach to Functional Calibration of Computer Models, Probabilistic forecast of nonlinear dynamical systems with uncertainty quantification, Probabilistic-learning-based stochastic surrogate model from small incomplete datasets for nonlinear dynamical systems, Error control of the numerical posterior with Bayes factors in Bayesian uncertainty quantification, Gaussian orthogonal latent factor processes for large incomplete matrices of correlated data, Deep Gaussian processes for calibration of computer models (with discussion), Efficient emulation of computer models utilising multiple known boundaries of differing dimension, Propagation of input uncertainties in particle transport and the distribution of the sum of \(N\) independent stochastic variables a generalization of the Irwin-Hall distribution, Exploratory ensemble designs for environmental models using k‐extended Latin Hypercubes, Probabilistic learning constrained by realizations using a weak formulation of Fourier transform of probability measures, Scalable Control Variates for Monte Carlo Methods Via Stochastic Optimization, Bi-fidelity modeling of uncertain and partially unknown systems using DeepONets, Spatiotemporal local interpolation of global ocean heat transport using argo floats: a debiased latent Gaussian process approach, An asynchronous parallel high-throughput model calibration framework for crystal plasticity finite element constitutive models, Optimal design of validation experiments for the prediction of quantities of interest, A sequential design strategy for integrating low-accuracy and high-accuracy computer experiments, Bayesian spatiotemporal modeling for inverse problems, Correlation-based sparse inverse Cholesky factorization for fast Gaussian-process inference, Novel Nonprobabilistic Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification Method for Structures with Interval Parameters, A Bayesian hierarchical model framework to quantify uncertainty of tropical cyclone precipitation forecasts, A comparison of statistical emulation methodologies for multi‐wave calibration of environmental models, Interpretable Architecture Neural Networks for Function Visualization, Variational inference for cutting feedback in misspecified models, Probabilistic physics-guided transfer learning for material property prediction in extrusion deposition additive manufacturing, Physics-constrained data-driven variational method for discrepancy modeling, Stochastic PDE representation of random fields for large-scale Gaussian process regression and statistical finite element analysis, Accelerating hypersonic reentry simulations using deep learning-based hybridization (with guarantees), Empirical quantification of predictive uncertainty due to model discrepancy by training with an ensemble of experimental designs: an application to ion channel kinetics, Parameter Selection in Gaussian Process Interpolation: An Empirical Study of Selection Criteria, Discrepancy Modeling Framework: Learning Missing Physics, Modeling Systematic Residuals, and Disambiguating between Deterministic and Random Effects, Bayesian structural identification using Gaussian process discrepancy models, Functional PCA and deep neural networks-based Bayesian inverse uncertainty quantification with transient experimental data, Polynomial-chaos-based conditional statistics for probabilistic learning with heterogeneous data applied to atomic collisions of helium on graphite substrate, Kernel methods are competitive for operator learning, Bi-fidelity variational auto-encoder for uncertainty quantification, Bayesian decision-theoretic design of experiments under an alternative model, A Bayesian computer model analysis of robust Bayesian analyses, Multiobjective optimization using Gaussian process emulators via stepwise uncertainty reduction, AABC: approximate approximate Bayesian computation for inference in population-genetic models, Comments on: A general science-based framework for dynamical spatio-temporal models, Probabilistic parameter estimation in a 2-step chemical kinetics model for n-dodecane jet autoignition, Statistical Finite Elements via Langevin Dynamics, Penalized Projected Kernel Calibration for Computer Models, Minimax Efficient Random Experimental Design Strategies With Application to Model-Robust Design for Prediction, Valuations of EQ-5D health states: could United Kingdom results be used as informative priors for the United States, Statistical Challenges in Agent-Based Modeling, Fast matrix algebra for Bayesian model calibration, Unnamed Item, Predicting the Output From a Stochastic Computer Model When a Deterministic Approximation is Available, Gaussian Process Prediction using Design-Based Subsampling, Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis of Complex Models: A Bayesian Approach, Statistical finite elements for misspecified models, Varying Coefficient Models and Design Choice for Bayes Linear Emulation of Complex Computer Models with Limited Model Evaluations, Unnamed Item, An Acceleration Strategy for Randomize-Then-Optimize Sampling Via Deep Neural Networks, Statistical Assessment of Numerical Models*, Spline-Based Emulators for Radiative Shock Experiments With Measurement Error, Fast Prediction of Deterministic Functions Using Sparse Grid Experimental Designs, Sequential Construction and Dimension Reduction of Gaussian Processes Under Inequality Constraints, Ensemble Inference Methods for Models With Noisy and Expensive Likelihoods, Bayesian model calibration for vacuum-ultraviolet photoionisation mass spectrometry, Scaled Vecchia Approximation for Fast Computer-Model Emulation, Quantifying Spatio-Temporal Boundary Condition Uncertainty for the North American Deglaciation, Reducing and Calibrating for Input Model Bias in Computer Simulation, Adaptive multiple importance sampling for Gaussian processes, A Monte Carlo approach to quantifying discrepancies between intractable posterior distributions, Efficient sampling on the simplex with a self-adjusting logit transform proposal, Unnamed Item, Data-consistent inversion for stochastic input-to-output maps, Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Uncertainty Quantification for Gaussian Process Approximation of Deterministic Functions, Optimization-Based Calibration of Simulation Input Models, Emulation and interpretation of high-dimensional climate model outputs, Bayesian Optimal Design for Ordinary Differential Equation Models With Application in Biological Science, A Knowledge Gradient Policy for Sequencing Experiments to Identify the Structure of RNA Molecules Using a Sparse Additive Belief Model, Efficient models for correlated data via convolutions of intrinsic processes, Dealing with Measurement Uncertainties as Nuisance Parameters in Bayesian Model Calibration, Convergence of Gaussian Process Regression with Estimated Hyper-Parameters and Applications in Bayesian Inverse Problems, Including a Nugget Effect in Lifted Brownian Covariance Models, A Nonstationary Statistical Model for Computationally Intensive Numerical Ordinary Differential Systems, Maximum Likelihood Estimation by Monte Carlo Simulation: Toward Data-Driven Stochastic Modeling, Adaptive Numerical Designs for the Calibration of Computer Codes, Parallel Local Approximation MCMC for Expensive Models, Consistency Analysis for Massively Inconsistent Datasets in Bound-to-Bound Data Collaboration, Flexible Correlation Structure for Accurate Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification in Bayesian Gaussian Process Emulation of a Computer Model, Sequential Design of Computer Experiments for the Solution of Bayesian Inverse Problems, Efficient History Matching of a High Dimensional Individual-Based HIV Transmission Model, On the Improved Rates of Convergence for Matérn-Type Kernel Ridge Regression with Application to Calibration of Computer Models, Langevin Diffusion for Population Based Sampling with an Application in Bayesian Inference for Pharmacodynamics, Considering discrepancy when calibrating a mechanistic electrophysiology model, Structural dynamic analysis using Gaussian process emulators, Unnamed Item, Statistical emulation of landslide-induced tsunamis at the Rockall Bank, NE Atlantic, SINDy-PI: a robust algorithm for parallel implicit sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics, Bayesian Model Calibration with Interpolating Polynomials based on Adaptively Weighted Leja Nodes, An Adaptive Surrogate Modeling Based on Deep Neural Networks for Large-Scale Bayesian Inverse Problems, Methods for handling uncertainty within pharmaceutical funding decisions, Hierarchical Emulation: A Method for Modeling and Comparing Nested Simulators, A Theoretical Framework for Calibration in Computer Models: Parametrization, Estimation and Convergence Properties, Stochastic kriging with biased sample estimates, Design and Analysis of Variable Fidelity Experimentation Applied to Engine Valve Heat Treatment Process Design, Estimating Utilities from Individual Health Preference Data: A Nonparametric Bayesian Method, Stochastic finite element methods for partial differential equations with random input data, Inferring Atmospheric Release Characteristics in a Large Computer Experiment Using Bayesian Adaptive Splines, Bayesian Probabilistic Numerical Methods in Time-Dependent State Estimation for Industrial Hydrocyclone Equipment, Uncertainty Quantification for Computer Models With Spatial Output Using Calibration-Optimal Bases, Diagnostics-Driven Nonstationary Emulators Using Kernel Mixtures, Efficient sequential experimental design for surrogate modeling of nested codes, Optimal compromise between incompatible conditional probability distributions, with application to Objective Bayesian Kriging, Multilevel Adaptive Sparse Leja Approximations for Bayesian Inverse Problems, Combining computer models to account for mass loss in stellar evolution, Visualizing discrepancies from nonlinear models and computer experiments, An investigation of Bayesian inference approach to model validation with non-normal data, Data-driven forward discretizations for Bayesian inversion, Bayesian calibration of hydrocarbon reservoir models using an approximate reservoir simulator in the prior specification, Smooth supersaturated models, Sequential tuning of complex computer models, Hierarchical Bayesian LASSO for a negative binomial regression, Bayesian Parameter Identification in Cahn--Hilliard Models for Biological Growth, Adaptive multiscale predictive modelling, Parameter and Uncertainty Estimation for Dynamical Systems Using Surrogate Stochastic Processes, Semi-parametric adjustment to computer models, Adjustments to Computer Models via Projected Kernel Calibration, Known Boundary Emulation of Complex Computer Models, A Sequential Design Approach for Calibrating Dynamic Computer Simulators, Structural dynamics model updating with interval uncertainty based on response surface model and sensitivity analysis, Computed tomography with view angle estimation using uncertainty quantification, Robust System Design with Limited Experimental Data and an Inexact Simulation Model, A Generalized Polynomial Chaos-Based Method for Efficient Bayesian Calibration of Uncertain Computational Models, On Constraining Projections of Future Climate Using Observations and Simulations From Multiple Climate Models, Unnamed Item, Gaussian process emulators for spatial individual‐level models of infectious disease, Representing Model Discrepancy in Bound-to-Bound Data Collaboration, On Learned Operator Correction in Inverse Problems, Computer Model Calibration with Time Series Data Using Deep Learning and Quantile Regression, Landmark-Warped Emulators for Models with Misaligned Functional Response, Intermediate Variable Emulation: Using Internal Processes in Simulators to Build More Informative Emulators, Iterative method for tuning complex simulation code, Asymptotic Analysis of Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Covariance Parameters for Gaussian Processes: An Introduction with Proofs, Comparison of Surrogate-Based Uncertainty Quantification Methods for Computationally Expensive Simulators, Rare Event Estimation for Computer Models, Advances in the Sequential Design of Computer Experiments Based on Active Learning, Gaussian process emulators for the stochastic finite element method, Robustness, fidelity and prediction-looseness of models, Full scale multi-output Gaussian process emulator with nonseparable auto-covariance functions, A paradigm for data-driven predictive modeling using field inversion and machine learning, Emulation of dynamic simulators with application to hydrology, Numerical strategy for model correction using physical constraints, Bayesian inference of nonlinear unsteady aerodynamics from aeroelastic limit cycle oscillations, Representing Model Inadequacy: A Stochastic Operator Approach, Experimental Design for Nonparametric Correction of Misspecified Dynamical Models, Comparison of Statistical and Deterministic Frameworks of Uncertainty Quantification, A Framework for Multi-Model Ensembling, Emulation of Multivariate Simulators Using Thin-Plate Splines with Application to Atmospheric Dispersion, Forcing Function Diagnostics for Nonlinear Dynamics, Estimation of Systematic and Spatially Correlated Components of Random Signals from Repeated Measurements: Application to Contrast Enhanced Computer Tomography Measurements, A novel Bayesian strategy for the identification of spatially varying material properties and model validation: an application to static elastography, Convergence of Probability Densities Using Approximate Models for Forward and Inverse Problems in Uncertainty Quantification, Default priors for Gaussioan processes, Uncertainty Quantification Using the Nearest Neighbor Gaussian Process, Identification of dynamical systems with structured uncertainty, Multilevel model reduction for uncertainty quantification in computational structural dynamics, On the validity and errors of the pseudo-first-order kinetics in ligand-receptor binding, Bayesian calibration, validation and uncertainty quantification for predictive modelling of tumour growth: a tutorial, Survey of Multifidelity Methods in Uncertainty Propagation, Inference, and Optimization, Uncertainty Relationship Analysis for Multi-Parametric Programming in Optimization, A Partially Linear Model Using a Gaussian Process Prior, High-dimensional black-box optimization under uncertainty, Bayesian Calibration of the Community Land Model Using Surrogates, A Physics-Based Emulator for the Simulation of Geophysical Mass Flows, Small-noise approximation for Bayesian optimal experimental design with nuisance uncertainty, Reliable and efficient parameter estimation using approximate continuum limit descriptions of stochastic models, A new network approach to Bayesian inference in partial differential equations, Nonhierarchical multi‐model fusion using spatial random processes, A collaborative model calibration framework under uncertainty considering parameter distribution, Toward selecting optimal predictive multiscale models, Bayesian updating with two-step parallel Bayesian optimization and quadrature, Data-driven learning of differential equations: combining data and model uncertainty, Posterior consistency for Gaussian process approximations of Bayesian posterior distributions, Efficient heterogeneous sampling for stochastic simulation with an illustration in health care applications, Parameter estimation with maximal updated densities, Iterative updating of model error for Bayesian inversion, Calibrating a Stochastic, Agent-Based Model Using Quantile-Based Emulation, Extreme value analysis for evaluating ozone control strategies, Virtual model validation of complex multiscale systems: applications to nonlinear elastostatics, Error estimation in coupled multi-physics models, Demonstration of the relationship between sensitivity and identifiability for inverse uncertainty quantification, An adaptive reduced basis ANOVA method for high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems, Uncertainty updating in the description of coupled heat and moisture transport in heterogeneous materials, Flexible iterative ensemble smoother for calibration of perfect and imperfect models, Dynamic simulation metamodeling using Mars: a case of radar simulation, A deep learning driven pseudospectral PCE based FFT homogenization algorithm for complex microstructures, Computer model validation with functional output, Robust optimisation of computationally expensive models using adaptive multi-fidelity emulation, Novel method for a posteriori uncertainty quantification in wildland fire spread simulation, Bayes linear analysis for ordinary differential equations, Calibration of a radiation quality model for sparse and uncertain data, Bayesian Calibration of a Stochastic Kinetic Computer Model Using Multiple Data Sources, Rapid design of metamaterials via multitarget Bayesian optimization, Bayesian learning of orthogonal embeddings for multi-fidelity Gaussian processes, Residual Gaussian process: a tractable nonparametric Bayesian emulator for multi-fidelity simulations, How Deep Are Deep Gaussian Processes?, A Bayesian approach to crop model calibration under unknown error covariance, Assessing first-order emulator inference for physical parameters in nonlinear mechanistic models, Modeling space-time dynamics of aerosols using satellite data and atmospheric transport model output, Verifying reification with application to a rainfall-runoff computer simulator, Calibration of numerical model output using nonparametric spatial density functions, Quantifying simulator discrepancy in discrete-time dynamical simulators, Comparing and blending regional climate model predictions for the American Southwest, Computer model calibration based on image warping metrics: an application for sea ice deformation, Model identification for hydrological forecasting under uncertainty, Measures of agreement between computation and experiment: validation metrics, Uncertainty quantification for chaotic computational fluid dynamics, Calibration and validation of coarse-grained models of atomic systems: application to semiconductor manufacturing, Estimating the rate constant from biosensor data via an adaptive variational Bayesian approach, A Survey of Projection-Based Model Reduction Methods for Parametric Dynamical Systems, Non-parametric Sampling Approximation via Voronoi Tessellations, Bayesian uncertainty analysis for complex physical systems modelled by computer simulators with applications to tipping points, Stratified random sampling for dependent inputs in Monte Carlo simulations from computer experiments, Iterative construction of Gaussian process surrogate models for Bayesian inference, Probabilistic solutions to ordinary differential equations as nonlinear Bayesian filtering: a new perspective, Local Gaussian Process Model for Large-Scale Dynamic Computer Experiments, A Function Emulation Approach for Doubly Intractable Distributions, Calibration experimental design considering field response and model uncertainty, Bayesian model selection using automatic relevance determination for nonlinear dynamical systems, An estimation algorithm for fast Kriging surrogates of computer models with unstructured multiple outputs, A computational framework for Bayesian inference in plasticity models characterisation, Jointly robust prior for Gaussian stochastic process in emulation, calibration and variable selection, Bayesian hierarchical uncertainty quantification by structural equation modeling, Complexity science of multiscale materials via stochastic computations, A Strategy for Bayesian Inference for Computationally Expensive Models with Application to the Estimation of Stem Cell Properties, Diagnosing forward operator error using optimal transport, Physics-informed covariance kernel for model-form uncertainty quantification with application to turbulent flows, Dynamic spatial Bayesian models for radioactivity deposition, Efficient estimation of sensitivity indices, Advanced Space Vehicle Design Taking into Account Multidisciplinary Couplings and Mixed Epistemic/Aleatory Uncertainties, Comparison of designs for computer experiments, Estimating Percentiles of Uncertain Computer Code Outputs, System design of stochastic models using robustness of temporal properties, Inverse solution for parameter estimation of computer simulation by an empirical Bayesian code tuning method, Proper orthogonal decompositions in multifidelity uncertainty quantification of complex simulation models, Workshop on statistical approaches for the evaluation of complex computer models, Surrogate modeling of hydrodynamic forces between multiple floating bodies through a hierarchical interaction decomposition, Modelling, making inferences and making decisions: The roles of sensitivity analysis, Calibrate, emulate, sample, Fixed inducing points online Bayesian calibration for computer models with an application to a scale-resolving CFD simulation, On generalized residual network for deep learning of unknown dynamical systems, Nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning for physics-based models, Robust calibration of numerical models based on relative regret, Deep coregionalization for the emulation of simulation-based spatial-temporal fields, Indistinguishable states. II: The imperfect model scenario, Calibration and prediction for the inexact SIR model, Bayesian model inversion using stochastic spectral embedding, Model error propagation from experimental to prediction configuration, Identification of model uncertainty via optimal design of experiments applied to a mechanical press, Probabilistic learning inference of boundary value problem with uncertainties based on Kullback-Leibler divergence under implicit constraints, A predictive multiphase model of silica aerogels for building envelope insulations, Adaptive design for Gaussian process regression under censoring, Batch-sequential design and heteroskedastic surrogate modeling for delta smelt conservation, Data-driven uncertainty quantification in computational human head models, Variational inference with NoFAS: normalizing flow with adaptive surrogate for computationally expensive models, A higher-order singular value decomposition tensor emulator for spatiotemporal simulators, Parameter calibration in wake effect simulation model with stochastic gradient descent and stratified sampling, Ice model calibration using semicontinuous spatial data, Variational system identification of the partial differential equations governing the physics of pattern-formation: inference under varying fidelity and noise, Evaluation of ensemble methods for quantifying uncertainties in steady-state CFD applications with small ensemble sizes, A mechanistic dynamic emulator, Calibration of computer models with multivariate output, The effect of the nugget on Gaussian process emulators of computer models, Time-series machine-learning error models for approximate solutions to parameterized dynamical systems, Adaptive method for indirect identification of the statistical properties of random fields in a Bayesian framework, A bi-fidelity surrogate modeling approach for uncertainty propagation in three-dimensional hemodynamic simulations, Enforcing boundary conditions on physical fields in Bayesian inversion, A regularization method for the parameter estimation problem in ordinary differential equations via discrete optimal control theory, Inference for population dynamics in the Neolithic period, A fast particle-based approach for calibrating a 3-D model of the Antarctic ice sheet, Coherent combination of probabilistic outputs for group decision making: an algebraic approach, Inverse dispersion for an unknown number of sources: model selection and uncertainty analysis, Sampling of Bayesian posteriors with a non-Gaussian probabilistic learning on manifolds from a small dataset, Multimodal, high-dimensional, model-based, Bayesian inverse problems with applications in biomechanics, Adaptive multi-fidelity polynomial chaos approach to Bayesian inference in inverse problems, Structured Bayesian Gaussian process latent variable model: applications to data-driven dimensionality reduction and high-dimensional inversion, Bi-fidelity stochastic gradient descent for structural optimization under uncertainty, Bayesian prediction for physical models with application to the optimization of the synthesis of pharmaceutical products using chemical kinetics, Bayesian pollution source identification via an inverse physics model, Emulator-assisted reduced-rank ecological data assimilation for nonlinear multivariate dynamical spatio-temporal processes, Bayesian sequential data collection for stochastic simulation calibration, Dynamic Bayesian influenza forecasting in the United States with hierarchical discrepancy (with discussion), Uncertainty quantification with risk measures in production planning, Uncertainty quantification in multiscale simulation of woven fiber composites, Epistemic uncertainty-based model validation via interval propagation and parameter calibration, Bayesian assessment of uncertainty in viscosity closure models for turbidity currents computations, Machine-learning error models for approximate solutions to parameterized systems of nonlinear equations, A data-driven framework for sparsity-enhanced surrogates with arbitrary mutually dependent randomness, Bayesian modeling of inconsistent plastic response due to material variability, Robust Gaussian stochastic process emulation, Uncertainty aggregation and reduction in structure-material performance prediction, Emulating dynamic non-linear simulators using Gaussian processes, Modelling of a thermomechanically coupled forming process based on functional outputs from a finite element analysis and from experimental measurements, Statistics in atmospheric science, A hierarchical spatiotemporal statistical model motivated by glaciology, Quantification of predictive uncertainty in models of FtsZ ring assembly in \textit{Escherichia coli}, A dynamic bi-orthogonal field equation approach to efficient Bayesian inversion, Fundamental issues in the representation and propagation of uncertain equation of state information in shock hydrodynamics, Mean-field and full-field homogenization with polymorphic uncertain geometry and material parameters, Modeling strength and failure variability due to porosity in additively manufactured metals, A sequential calibration and validation framework for model uncertainty quantification and reduction, Data fusion for uncertainty quantification with non-intrusive polynomial chaos, Bayesian calibration of computer models based on Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy models, The statistical finite element method (statFEM) for coherent synthesis of observation data and model predictions, A neural network-based framework for financial model calibration, Randomized reduced forward models for efficient Metropolis-Hastings MCMC, with application to subsurface fluid flow and capacitance tomography, Assessment of uncertainties in hot-wire anemometry and oil-film interferometry measurements for wall-bounded turbulent flows, Penalising model component complexity: a principled, practical approach to constructing priors, Computed tomography reconstruction with uncertain view angles by iteratively updated model discrepancy, Estimation of an improved surrogate model in uncertainty quantification by neural networks, Estimation of a density using an improved surrogate model, Calibrating expert assessments using hierarchical Gaussian process models, Parallel Gaussian process surrogate Bayesian inference with noisy likelihood evaluations, Sequential Bayesian optimal experimental design for structural reliability analysis, A fast and calibrated computer model emulator: an empirical Bayes approach, Bayesian numerical methods for nonlinear partial differential equations, Learning quantities of interest from dynamical systems for observation-consistent inversion, Polynomial surrogates for Bayesian traveltime tomography, Emulation-accelerated Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithms for parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification in differential equation models, Bayesian optimization of functional output in inverse problems, Analyzing stochastic computer models: a review with opportunities, At the crossroads of simulation and data analytics, Assessing the reliability of wind power operations under a changing climate with a non-Gaussian bias correction, Effective model calibration via sensible variable identification and adjustment with application to composite fuselage simulation, Structured discrepancy in Bayesian model calibration for ChemCam on the Mars Curiosity rover, Estimating functional parameters for understanding the impact of weather and government interventions on COVID-19 outbreak, A spatial causal analysis of wildland fire-contributed \(\mathrm{PM}_{2.5}\) using numerical model output, Non-intrusive estimation of model error and discrepancy in dynamics models, The SPDE approach to Matérn fields: graph representations, Data-driven uncertainty quantification in macroscopic traffic flow models, Emulation of cardiac mechanics using graph neural networks, \texttt{CAMERA}: a method for cost-aware, adaptive, multifidelity, efficient reliability analysis, Variational inference with vine copulas: an efficient approach for Bayesian computer model calibration, Bayesian fixed-domain asymptotics for covariance parameters in a Gaussian process model, Hierarchical sparse Cholesky decomposition with applications to high-dimensional spatio-temporal filtering, Posterior belief assessment: extracting meaningful subjective judgements from Bayesian analyses with complex statistical models, Effect of environmental stress on regulation of gene expression in the yeast, Mixtures of experts for understanding model discrepancy in dynamic computer models, Noisy kriging-based optimization methods: a unified implementation within the DiceOptim package, Bounding rare event probabilities in computer experiments, A Monte Carlo approach to quantifying model error in Bayesian parameter estimation, Understanding hormonal crosstalk in \textit{Arabidopsis} root development via emulation and history matching, Parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis in an agent-based model of \textit{Leishmania major} infection, Surrogate-based parameter inference in debris flow model, Materials integrity in microsystems: a framework for a petascale predictive-science-based multiscale modeling and simulation system, A multi-resolution, non-parametric, Bayesian framework for identification of spatially-varying model parameters, An efficient Bayesian uncertainty quantification approach with application to \(k\)-\(\omega\)-\(\gamma\) transition modeling, Bayesian uncertainty quantification of turbulence models based on high-order adjoint, Uncertainty quantification for a sailing yacht hull, using multi-fidelity Kriging, Estimating airborne particulate emissions using a finite-volume forward solver coupled with a Bayesian inversion approach, Emulation engines: choice and quantification of uncertainty for complex hydrological models, Multi-output separable Gaussian process: towards an efficient, fully Bayesian paradigm for uncertainty quantification, Bayesian estimates of parameter variability in the \(k-\varepsilon\) turbulence model, Predictive RANS simulations via Bayesian model-scenario averaging, Designing combined physical and computer experiments to maximize prediction accuracy, Selection of model discrepancy priors in Bayesian calibration, An adaptive importance sampling algorithm for Bayesian inversion with multimodal distributions, Gaussian process hyper-parameter estimation using parallel asymptotically independent Markov sampling, Accelerating pseudo-marginal MCMC using Gaussian processes, A search algorithm for calculating validated reliability bounds, Bayesian calibration of the constants of the \(k-\varepsilon\) turbulence model for a CFD model of street canyon flow, Bayesian model selection for nonlinear aeroelastic systems using wind-tunnel data, Manifold learning for the emulation of spatial fields from computational models, Survey of modeling and optimization strategies to solve high-dimensional design problems with computationally-expensive black-box functions, Efficient reliability analysis based on Bayesian framework under input variable and metamodel uncertainties, Parameter tuning for a multi-fidelity dynamical model of the magnetosphere, Maximin distance optimal designs for computer experiments with time-varying inputs and outputs, Multi-objective geometry optimization of a gas cyclone using triple-fidelity co-Kriging surrogate models, Quantifying adventitious error in a covariance structure as a random effect, Advances in modeling model discrepancy: comment on Wu and Browne, Random model discrepancy: interpretations and technicalities (A rejoinder), Bayesian inference with misspecified models: inference about what?, Multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression for prediction of random fields, Fast dimension-reduced climate model calibration and the effect of data aggregation, On the Bayesian calibration of computer model mixtures through experimental data, and the design of predictive models, Efficient calibration for imperfect computer models, Nested polynomial trends for the improvement of Gaussian process-based predictors, Probabilistic models and uncertainty quantification for the ionization reaction rate of atomic nitrogen, Comment: ``The 2005 Neyman lecture: dynamic indeterminism in science, Mechanism-based emulation of dynamic simulation models: concept and application in hydrology, Gaussian process emulation for second-order Monte Carlo simulations, A general construction for nested Latin hypercube designs, Calibrating a large computer experiment simulating radiative shock hydrodynamics, Certified reduced basis model validation: a frequentistic uncertainty framework, Statistical analysis of differential equations: introducing probability measures on numerical solutions, Parameter estimation of complex mixed models based on meta-model approach, Calibration of imperfect models to biased observations, Computational uncertainty analysis in multiresolution materials via stochastic constitutive theory, Bayes linear analysis of risks in sequential optimal design problems, A better understanding of model updating strategies in validating engineering models, Dealing with uncertainties in engineering problems using only available data, Properties of the posterior distribution of a regression model based on Gaussian random fields, A hierarchical framework for statistical model calibration in engineering product development, Model validation and predictive capability for the thermal challenge problem, A Bayesian calibration approach to the thermal problem, A Bayesian analysis of the thermal challenge problem, Multivariate significance testing and model calibration under uncertainty, Computational modeling issues and methods for the ``regulatory problem in engineering - solution to the thermal problem, Thermal challenge problem: Summary, Uncertainty analysis for computationally expensive models with multiple outputs, An efficient approach for quantifying parameter uncertainty in the SST turbulence model, An assessment of the foundational assumptions in high-resolution climate projections: the case of UKCP09, An information theoretic approach to use high-fidelity codes to calibrate low-fidelity codes, Quantifying and reducing model-form uncertainties in Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes simulations: a data-driven, physics-informed Bayesian approach, Cases for the nugget in modeling computer experiments, Sequential design of computer experiments for the estimation of a probability of failure, Global sensitivity analysis of stochastic computer models with joint metamodels, An Explicit Link between Gaussian Fields and Gaussian Markov Random Fields: The Stochastic Partial Differential Equation Approach, Follow-up experimental designs for computer models and physical processes, Aggregating expert judgement, A bivariate space-time downscaler under space and time misalignment, Fixed-domain asymptotics of the maximum likelihood estimator and the Gaussian process approach for deterministic models, A new and flexible method for constructing designs for computer experiments, Vecchia-approximated Deep Gaussian Processes for Computer Experiments, A theoretical framework of the scaled Gaussian stochastic process in prediction and calibration, Scaled Gaussian Stochastic Process for Computer Model Calibration and Prediction, A model for estimating point sources in spatial data, Uncertainty quantification in numerical simulation of particle-laden flows, Inverse regression-based uncertainty quantification algorithms for high-dimensional models: theory and practice, Emulation of higher-order tensors in manifold Monte Carlo methods for Bayesian inverse problems, Parameter estimation for computationally intensive nonlinear regression with an application to climate modeling, Bayesian model selection framework for identifying growth patterns in filamentous fungi, Reified Bayesian modelling and inference for physical systems, Calibration for computer experiments with binary responses and application to cell adhesion study, A generalized Gaussian process model for computer experiments with binary time series, Dimensionality reduction and polynomial chaos acceleration of Bayesian inference in inverse problems, Gaussian processes and limiting linear models, Efficient emulators of computer experiments using compactly supported correlation functions, with an application to cosmology, Construction of nested space-filling designs, Bayesian emulation of complex multi-output and dynamic computer models, Learning constitutive relations from indirect observations using deep neural networks, ANOVA Gaussian process modeling for high-dimensional stochastic computational models, Adaptive sampling-based quadrature rules for efficient Bayesian prediction, Bayes linear analysis for Bayesian optimal experimental design, Selection of a representative sample