Computer model calibration based on image warping metrics: an application for sea ice deformation
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Publication:2272999
Abstract: Arctic sea ice plays an important role in the global climate. Sea ice models governed by physical equations have been used to simulate the state of the ice including characteristics such as ice thickness, concentration, and motion. More recent models also attempt to capture features such as fractures or leads in the ice. These simulated features can be partially misaligned or misshapen when compared to observational data, whether due to numerical approximation or incomplete physics. In order to make realistic forecasts and improve understanding of the underlying processes, it is necessary to calibrate the numerical model to field data. Traditional calibration methods based on generalized least-square metrics are flawed for linear features such as sea ice cracks. We develop a statistical emulation and calibration framework that accounts for feature misalignment and misshapenness, which involves optimally aligning model output with observed features using cutting edge image registration techniques. This work can also have application to other physical models which produce coherent structures.
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Cited in
(10)- Probabilistic forecasting of the Arctic sea ice edge with contour modeling
- Level set discrete element method for modeling sea ice floes
- The potential of the ensemble Kalman filter to improve glacier modeling
- Computer model calibration with time series data using deep learning and quantile regression
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- Estimation of Spatial Deformation for Nonstationary Processes via Variogram Alignment
- Ice model calibration using semicontinuous spatial data
- Equilibrium dynamics of ice streams: a Bayesian statistical analysis
- Numerical simulation for cutoff draft of sea ice ridge keels based on a novel optimal modeling with nonlinear-statistical constraints
- Statistical downscaling with spatial misalignment: application to wildland fire \(\mathrm{PM}_{2.5}\) concentration forecasting
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