Ice model calibration using semicontinuous spatial data

DOI10.1214/21-AOAS1577zbMATH Open1498.62283arXiv1907.13554OpenAlexW2965505024WikidataQ114599213 ScholiaQ114599213MaRDI QIDQ2170447FDOQ2170447

Yanyan Li

Publication date: 5 September 2022

Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Rapid changes in Earth's cryosphere caused by human activity can lead to significant environmental impacts. Computer models provide a useful tool for understanding the behavior and projecting the future of Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets. However, these models are typically subject to large parametric uncertainties due to poorly constrained model input parameters that govern the behavior of simulated ice sheets. Computer model calibration provides a formal statistical framework to infer parameters using observational data, and to quantify the uncertainty in projections due to the uncertainty in these parameters. Calibration of ice sheet models is often challenging because the relevant model output and observational data take the form of semi-continuous spatial data, with a point mass at zero and a right-skewed continuous distribution for positive values. Current calibration approaches cannot handle such data. Here we introduce a hierarchical latent variable model that handles binary spatial patterns and positive continuous spatial patterns as separate components. To overcome challenges due to high-dimensionality we use likelihood-based generalized principal component analysis to impose low-dimensional structures on the latent variables for spatial dependence. We apply our methodology to calibrate a physical model for the Antarctic ice sheet and demonstrate that we can overcome the aforementioned modeling and computational challenges. As a result of our calibration, we obtain improved future ice-volume change projections.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.13554

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zbMATH Keywords

dimension reductioncomputer model calibrationcomputer model emulationsemicontinuous spatial datawest Antarctic ice sheet

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Computational methods for problems pertaining to statistics (62-08) Factor analysis and principal components; correspondence analysis (62H25) Inference from spatial processes (62M30) Applications of statistics to environmental and related topics (62P12)

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Cited In (1)

• Probabilistic forecast of nonlinear dynamical systems with uncertainty quantification

Uses Software

• pcaMethods
• RobustGaSP

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