Assessing the reliability of wind power operations under a changing climate with a non-Gaussian bias correction

DOI10.1214/21-AOAS1460zbMATH Open1498.62299arXiv2011.01263WikidataQ115992045 ScholiaQ115992045MaRDI QIDQ2078298FDOQ2078298

Stefano Castruccio, Paola Crippa, Jiachen Zhang, Marc G. Genton

Publication date: 28 February 2022

Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Facing increasing societal and economic pressure, many countries have established strategies to develop renewable energy portfolios, whose penetration in the market can alleviate the dependence on fossil fuels. In the case of wind, there is a fundamental question related to the resilience, and hence profitability of future wind farms to a changing climate, given that current wind turbines have lifespans of up to thirty years. In this work, we develop a new non-Gaussian method data to simulations and to estimate future wind, predicated on a trans-Gaussian transformation and a cluster-wise minimization of the Kullback-Leibler divergence. Future winds abundance will be determined for Saudi Arabia, a country with a recently established plan to develop a portfolio of up to 16 GW of wind energy. Further, we estimate the change in profits over future decades using additional high-resolution simulations, an improved method for vertical wind extrapolation, and power curves from a collection of popular wind turbines. We find an overall increase in the daily profit of $272,000 for the wind energy market for the optimal locations for wind farming in the country.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2011.01263

zbMATH Keywords

Kullback-Leibler divergencebias correctionnonstationary modelspatiotemporal modelwind energynon-Gaussian process

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Bayesian inference (62F15) Inference from spatial processes (62M30) Applications of statistics in engineering and industry; control charts (62P30) Applications of statistics to environmental and related topics (62P12)

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Cited In (2)

• Novel application of a process convolution approach for calibrating output from numerical models
• Assessing the reliability of wind power operations under a changing climate with a non-Gaussian bias correction

Uses Software

• convoSPAT

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