Dynamic treatment regimes using Bayesian additive regression trees for censored outcomes

DOI10.1007/S10985-023-09605-8arXiv2210.13330MaRDI QIDQ6205050FDOQ6205050

Authors:

Publication date: 11 April 2024

Published in: Lifetime Data Analysis (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: To achieve the goal of providing the best possible care to each patient, physicians need to customize treatments for patients with the same diagnosis, especially when treating diseases that can progress further and require additional treatments, such as cancer. Making decisions at multiple stages as a disease progresses can be formalized as a dynamic treatment regime (DTR). Most of the existing optimization approaches for estimating dynamic treatment regimes including the popular method of Q-learning were developed in a frequentist context. Recently, a general Bayesian machine learning framework that facilitates using Bayesian regression modeling to optimize DTRs has been proposed. In this article, we adapt this approach to censored outcomes using Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) for each stage under the accelerated failure time modeling framework, along with simulation studies and a real data example that compare the proposed approach with Q-learning. We also develop an R wrapper function that utilizes a standard BART survival model to optimize DTRs for censored outcomes. The wrapper function can easily be extended to accommodate any type of Bayesian machine learning model.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.13330

zbMATH Keywords

survival analysisprecision medicineindividualized treatment rulesaccelerated failure time (AFT)allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10) Survival analysis and censored data (62Nxx)

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