Nonlinear autoregressive conditional duration models for traffic congestion estimation

DOI10.1155/2011/798953MaRDI QIDQ642455zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Eleni I. Vlahogianni, Matthew G. Karlaftis, Konstantinos Kepaptsoglou

Publication date 26 October 2011

Published in Journal of Probability and Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Copyright license Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1155/2011/798953

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Stochastic network models in operations research (90B15) Traffic problems in operations research (90B20)

Review text

Summary: The considerable impact of congestion on transportation networks is reflected by the vast amount of research papers dedicated to congestion identification, modeling, and alleviation. Despite this, the statistical characteristics of congestion, and particularly of its duration, have not been systematically studied, regardless of the fact that they can offer significant insights on its formation, effects and alleviation. We extend previous research by proposing the autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) approach for modeling congestion duration in urban signalized arterials. Results based on data from a signalized arterial indicate that a multiregime nonlinear ACD model best describes the observed congestion duration data while when it lasts longer than 18 minutes, traffic exhibits persistence and slow recovery rate.

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Cites work

• A nonlinear autoregressive conditional duration model with applications to financial transaction data
• Analysis of Financial Time Series
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Cited in

(2)

• Temporal-spatial analysis of traffic congestion based on modified CTM
• Effect of aggregation interval on vehicular traffic flow heteroscedasticity

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• FinTS

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