A Bayesian joinpoint regression model with an unknown number of break-points

DOI10.1214/11-AOAS471zbMATH Open1228.62032arXiv1112.1526OpenAlexW2088309218MaRDI QIDQ652378FDOQ652378

Authors: Miguel A. Martinez-Beneito, Gonzalo García-Donato, Diego Salmerón 

Publication date: 14 December 2011

Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Joinpoint regression is used to determine the number of segments needed to adequately explain the relationship between two variables. This methodology can be widely applied to real problems, but we focus on epidemiological data, the main goal being to uncover changes in the mortality time trend of a specific disease under study. Traditionally, Joinpoint regression problems have paid little or no attention to the quantification of uncertainty in the estimation of the number of change-points. In this context, we found a satisfactory way to handle the problem in the Bayesian methodology. Nevertheless, this novel approach involves significant difficulties (both theoretical and practical) since it implicitly entails a model selection (or testing) problem. In this study we face these challenges through (i) a novel reparameterization of the model, (ii) a conscientious definition of the prior distributions used and (iii) an encompassing approach which allows the use of MCMC simulation-based techniques to derive the results. The resulting methodology is flexible enough to make it possible to consider mortality counts (for epidemiological applications) as Poisson variables. The methodology is applied to the study of annual breast cancer mortality during the period 1980--2007 in Castell'{o}n, a province in Spain.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1112.1526

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• Regularization techniques in joinpoint regression
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zbMATH Keywords

model selectionBayesian statisticsBayes factorsepidemiological time seriesjoinpoint regression

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Bayesian inference (62F15) Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10) Numerical analysis or methods applied to Markov chains (65C40) Medical applications (general) (92C50)

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• A Bayesian joinpoint regression model with an unknown number of break-points
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• Estimating joinpoints in continuous time scale for multiple change-point models
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Cited In (13)

• Bayesian multiple structural change-points estimation in time series models with genetic algorithm
• Bayesian analysis of cancer rates from SEER program using parametric and semiparametric joinpoint regression models
• A Bayesian joinpoint regression model with an unknown number of break-points
• Testing shape constraints in Lasso regularized joinpoint regression
• Binary genetic algorithm for optimal Joinpoint detection: application to cancer trend analysis
• Inference in segmented line regression: a simulation study
• Consistent model selection in segmented line regression
• Bayesian age-stratified joinpoint regression model: an application to lung and brain cancer mortality
• Bayesian Model Selection for Join Point Regression with Application to Age-Adjusted Cancer Rates
• Regularization techniques in joinpoint regression
• Semiparametric Bayesian approaches to joinpoint regression for population-based cancer survival data
• Estimating joinpoints in continuous time scale for multiple change-point models
• Changing presidential approval: detecting and understanding change points in interval censored polling data

Uses Software

• Joinpoint

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