Household epidemic models with varying infection response

DOI10.1007/S00285-010-0372-6zbMATH Open1230.92045arXiv1005.4570OpenAlexW2024679101WikidataQ45948505 ScholiaQ45948505MaRDI QIDQ659016FDOQ659016

Authors: T. Britton, David Sirl, Frank Ball 

Publication date: 9 February 2012

Published in: Journal of Mathematical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: This paper is concerned with SIR (susceptible $o$ infected $o$ removed) household epidemic models in which the infection response may be either mild or severe, with the type of response also affecting the infectiousness of an individual. Two different models are analysed. In the first model, the infection status of an individual is predetermined, perhaps due to partial immunity, and in the second, the infection status of an individual depends on the infection status of its infector and on whether the individual was infected by a within- or between-household contact. The first scenario may be modelled using a multitype household epidemic model, and the second scenario by a model we denote by the infector-dependent-severity household epidemic model. Large population results of the two models are derived, with the focus being on the distribution of the total numbers of mild and severe cases in a typical household, of any given size, in the event that the epidemic becomes established. The aim of the paper is to investigate whether it is possible to determine which of the two underlying explanations is causing the varying response when given final size household outbreak data containing mild and severe cases. We conduct numerical studies which show that, given data on sufficiently many households, it is generally possible to discriminate between the two models by comparing the Kullback-Leibler divergence for the two fitted models to these data.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1005.4570

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zbMATH Keywords

Kullback-Leibler divergenceFinal outcome dataInfector dependent severityMultitype epidemics

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10) Epidemiology (92D30) Probabilistic models, generic numerical methods in probability and statistics (65C20)

Cites Work

• Modeling infectious diseases in humans and animals
• The relationship between real-time and discrete-generation models of epidemic spread
• Stochastic multitype SIR epidemics among a population partitioned into households
• Estimating the immunity coverage required to prevent epidemics in a community of households
• Stochastic multitype epidemics in a community of households: Estimation of threshold parameter R and secure vaccination coverage
• An epidemic model with infector-dependent severity
• An epidemic model with infector and exposure dependent severity
• Immunization levels for preventing epidemics in a community of households made up of individuals of various types
• Control of transmission with two types of infection
• A Generalized Stochastic Model for the Analysis of Infectious Disease Final Size Data

Cited In (3)

• Household epidemic models and McKean-Vlasov Poisson driven stochastic differential equations
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• The effect of household distribution on transmission and control of highly infectious diseases

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