Pseudo-Anosovs are exponentially generic in mapping class groups
Hyperbolic groups and nonpositively curved groups (20F67) Teichmüller theory for Riemann surfaces (30F60) 2-dimensional topology (including mapping class groups of surfaces, Teichmüller theory, curve complexes, etc.) (57K20) Group actions on manifolds and cell complexes in low dimensions (57M60) Sums of independent random variables; random walks (60G50)
Let \(\Sigma\) be a closed hyperbolic surface and let \(\mathrm{Mod}(\Sigma)\), \(\mathcal{I}(\Sigma)\) and \(\mathcal{C}(\Sigma)\) the mapping class group, the Teichmüller space and the curve complex of \(\sigma\), respectively.\N\NThe main result in the paper under review is Theorem A: Let \(X\) be either a Gromov hyperbolic space or \(\mathcal{I}(\Sigma)\). Let also \(G\) be a finitely generated non-elementary subgroup of \(\mathrm{Isom}(X)\) and \(S' \subseteq G\) be a finite subset. Then there exist \(L, K > 0\) and a finite generating set \(S \supseteq S'\) of \(G\) such that, for each \(n\),\N\[\N\frac{\# \{g \in B_{S}(n) \mid \tau_{X}(g) \leq Ln \}}{\# B_{S}(n)} \leq Ke^{-n/K}.\N\]\NAs a consequence, the author affirmatively answers the following version of a folklore conjecture (see [\textit{B. Farb}, Proc. Symp. Pure Math. 74, 11--55 (2006; Zbl 1191.57015), Conjecture 3.15]), at least for infinitely many generating sets \(S\). Corollary 1.1: Let \(G\) be a finitely generated non-elementary subgroup of \(\mathrm{Mod}(\Sigma)\). Then there exists a finite generating set \(S \subseteq G\) such that the proportion of non-pseudo-Anosov mapping classes in the ball \(B_{S}(n)\) decays exponentially as \(n \rightarrow \infty\).
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