Spatial epidemics and local times for critical branching random walks in dimensions 2 and 3

DOI10.1007/S00440-009-0239-1MaRDI QIDQ707605zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Steven P. Lalley, Xinghua Zheng

Publication date 8 October 2010

Published in Zeitschrift für Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie und Verwandte Gebiete (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/0901.0246

zbMATH Keywords

branching random walkcritical scalingDawson-Watanabe processlocal timesSugitani's theoremsuper-Brownian motionWatanabe's theorem

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of stochastic analysis (to PDEs, etc.) (60H30) Applications of Brownian motions and diffusion theory (population genetics, absorption problems, etc.) (60J70) Interacting random processes; statistical mechanics type models; percolation theory (60K35) Epidemiology (92D30)

Abstract: The behavior at criticality of spatial SIR (susceptible/infected/recovered) epidemic models in dimensions two and three is investigated. In these models, finite populations of size N are situated at the vertices of the integer lattice, and infectious contacts are limited to individuals at the same or at neighboring sites. Susceptible individuals, once infected, remain contagious for one unit of time and then recover, after which they are immune to further infection. It is shown that the measure-valued processes associated with these epidemics, suitably scaled, converge, in the large-N limit, either to a standard Dawson-Watanabe process (super-Brownian motion) or to a Dawson-Watanabe process with location-dependent killing, depending on the size of the the initially infected set. A key element of the argument is a proof of Adler's 1993 conjecture that the local time processes associated with branching random walks converge to the local time density process associated with the limiting super-Brownian motion.

Review text

The main aim of the paper under review is to show that spatial susceptible/infected/recovered epidemics (SIR) in dimensions two and three exhibit critical thresholds as in the well-known one-dimensional case. The main result of the authors states that under suitable hypotheses on the initial configurations of the infected individuals, the critical spatial SIR-\(d\) epidemic for both \(d=2,3\) can be rescaled so as to converge to a Dawson-Watanabe measure-valued diffusion process (or often called super Brownian motion). Depending on the size of the initially infected set, the limiting Dawson-Watanabe measure-valued diffusion process has either a positive location-dependent killing rate or no killing at all. A similar result for dimension \(d=1\) was proved by the first author of this paper [Spatial epidemics: critical behavior in one dimension. Probab. Theory Relat. Fields 144, No. 3-4, 429--469 (2009; Zbl 1181.92073)].

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Cited in

(17)

• On the maximal displacement of near-critical branching random walks
• On the tail of the branching random walk local time
• Local survival of spread of infection among biased random walks
• Capacity of the range of tree-indexed random walk
• Bootstrap percolation on the product of the two-dimensional lattice with a Hamming square
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• A shape theorem for an epidemic model in dimension \(d \geq 3\)
• Branching random walks and their applications for epidemic modeling
• On the maximal displacement of subcritical branching random walks
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• A phase diagram for a stochastic reaction diffusion system
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• A lower bound for p_c in range-R bond percolation in four, five and six dimensions
• Sharp two-point local time estimates for critical branching random walks in low dimensions
• The range of tree-indexed random walk in low dimensions

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