Spatial epidemics: Critical behavior in one dimension
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Publication:2391167
DOI10.1007/S00440-008-0151-0zbMATH Open1181.92073arXivmath/0701698OpenAlexW2098992998MaRDI QIDQ2391167FDOQ2391167
Authors: Steven P. Lalley 
Publication date: 24 July 2009
Published in: Zeitschrift für Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie und Verwandte Gebiete (Search for Journal in Brave)
Abstract: In the simple mean-field SIS and SIR epidemic models, infection is transmitted from infectious to susceptible members of a finite population by independent p-coin tosses. Spatial variants of these models are proposed, in which finite populations of size N are situated at the sites of a lattice and infectious contacts are limited to individuals at neighboring sites. Scaling laws for these models are given when the infection parameter p is such that the epidemics are critical. It is shown that in all cases there is a critical threshold for the numbers initially infected: below the threshold, the epidemic evolves in essentially the same manner as its branching envelope, but at the threshold evolves like a branching process with a size-dependent drift. The corresponding scaling limits are super-Brownian motions and Dawson-Watanabe processes with killing, respectively.
Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/math/0701698
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Epidemiology (92D30) Interacting random processes; statistical mechanics type models; percolation theory (60K35) Branching processes (Galton-Watson, birth-and-death, etc.) (60J80) Applications of stochastic analysis (to PDEs, etc.) (60H30)
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Cited In (17)
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