The effect of immigrant communities coming from higher incidence tuberculosis regions to a host country

DOI10.1007/S11587-017-0350-ZzbMATH Open1395.92162arXiv1701.09157OpenAlexW3103719457WikidataQ57650334 ScholiaQ57650334MaRDI QIDQ722232FDOQ722232

Cristiana J. Silva, Delfim F. M. Torres, E. M. Rocha

Publication date: 23 July 2018

Published in: Ricerche di Matematica (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We introduce a new tuberculosis (TB) mathematical model, with $25$ state-space variables where $15$ are evolution disease states (EDSs), which generalises previous models and takes into account the (seasonal) flux of populations between a high incidence TB country (A) and a host country (B) with low TB incidence, where (B) is divided into a community (G) with high percentage of people from (A) plus the rest of the population (C). Contrary to some beliefs, related to the fact that agglomerations of individuals increase proportionally to the disease spread, analysis of the model shows that the existence of semi-closed communities are beneficial for the TB control from a global viewpoint. The model and techniques proposed are applied to a case-study with concrete parameters, which model the situation of Angola (A) and Portugal (B), in order to show its relevance and meaningfulness. Simulations show that variations of the transmission coefficient on the origin country has a big influence on the number of infected (and infectious) individuals on the community and the host country. Moreover, there is an optimal ratio for the distribution of individuals in (C) versus (G), which minimizes the reproduction number $R_0$. Such value does not give the minimal total number of infected individuals in all (B), since such is attained when the community (G) is completely isolated (theoretical scenario). Sensitivity analysis and curve fitting on $R_0$ and on EDSs are pursuit in order to understand the TB effects in the global statistics, by measuring the variability of the relevant parameters. We also show that the TB transmission rate $$ does not act linearly on $R_0$, as is common in compartment models where system feedback or group interactions do not occur. Further, we find the most important parameters for the increase of each EDS.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1701.09157

zbMATH Keywords

sensitivity analysiscurve fittingmathematical modeltuberculosisreproduction numberflux of populations

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Global stability of solutions to ordinary differential equations (34D23)

Cites Work

• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• The mathematics of infectious diseases
• Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission
• Optimal control strategies for tuberculosis treatment: A case study in Angola
• Optimal control for a tuberculosis model with reinfection and post-exposure interventions
• Cost-effectiveness analysis of optimal control measures for tuberculosis
• Models for transmission of disease with immigration of infectives
• Implications of partial immunity on the prospects for tuberculosis control by post-exposure interventions
• Projection of tuberculosis incidence with increasing immigration trends
• Modeling the impact of immigration on the epidemiology of tuberculosis
• Logical Analysis of Hybrid Systems
• Dynamical Systems with Applications using Maple¿

Cited In (6)

• Stationary distribution and extinction of a stochastic multigroup DS-DI-a model for the transmission of HIV
• Nonlinear adaptive control of tuberculosis with consideration of the risk of endogenous reactivation and exogenous reinfection
• Synchronization and self-organization in complex networks for a tuberculosis model
• A multiregion discrete-time epidemic model of \textit{Mycobacterium tuberculosis} infections: an optimal control approach
• The impact of migrant workers on the tuberculosis transmission: general models and a case study for China
• Influence of the topology on the dynamics of a complex network of HIV/AIDS epidemic models

Uses Software

• Maple

This page was built for publication: The effect of immigrant communities coming from higher incidence tuberculosis regions to a host country

Report a bug (only for logged in users!)Click here to report a bug for this page (MaRDI item Q722232)