Modeling sea-level change using errors-in-variables integrated Gaussian processes

DOI10.1214/15-AOAS824zbMATH Open1397.62483arXiv1312.6761OpenAlexW1882030935WikidataQ57558203 ScholiaQ57558203MaRDI QIDQ746643FDOQ746643

Authors: Niamh Cahill, Andrew C. Kemp, Benjamin P. Horton, Andrew C. Parnell 

Publication date: 28 October 2015

Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We perform Bayesian inference on historical and late Holocene (last 2000 years) rates of sea-level change. The input data to our model are tide-gauge measurements and proxy reconstructions from cores of coastal sediment. These data are complicated by multiple sources of uncertainty, some of which arise as part of the data collection exercise. Notably, the proxy reconstructions include temporal uncertainty from dating of the sediment core using techniques such as radiocarbon. The model we propose places a Gaussian process prior on the rate of sea-level change, which is then integrated and set in an errors-in-variables framework to take account of age uncertainty. The resulting model captures the continuous and dynamic evolution of sea-level change with full consideration of all sources of uncertainty. We demonstrate the performance of our model using two real (and previously published) example data sets. The global tide-gauge data set indicates that sea-level rise increased from a rate with a posterior mean of 1.13 mm$/$yr in 1880 AD (0.89 to 1.28 mm$/$yr 95% credible interval for the posterior mean) to a posterior mean rate of 1.92 mm$/$yr in 2009 AD (1.84 to 2.03 mm$/$yr 95% credible interval for the posterior mean). The proxy reconstruction from North Carolina (USA) after correction for land-level change shows the 2000 AD rate of rise to have a posterior mean of 2.44 mm$/$yr (1.91 to 3.01 mm$/$yr 95% credible interval). This is unprecedented in at least the last 2000 years.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1312.6761

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zbMATH Keywords

Bayesian statisticserrors-in-variablesintegrated Gaussian processesproxy reconstructiontide gauge

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Bayesian inference (62F15) Gaussian processes (60G15) Applications of statistics to environmental and related topics (62P12)

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• Modeling sea-level change using errors-in-variables integrated Gaussian processes

Cited In (7)

• reslr
• Sea level rise and the geoid: factor analysis approach
• Multivariate spatio‐temporal modelling for assessing Antarctica's present‐day contribution to sea‐level rise
• Modeling sea-level change using errors-in-variables integrated Gaussian processes
• Dimension Reduction for Gaussian Process Emulation: An Application to the Influence of Bathymetry on Tsunami Heights
• Measurement error models: from nonparametric methods to deep neural networks
• Statistical modeling of changes in relative sea level in Maine during the Holocene Era

Uses Software

• CODA
• rjags
• JAGS

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