Impact probability under aleatory and epistemic uncertainties

DOI10.1007/S10569-020-09991-3zbMATH Open1470.70023arXiv2011.13632OpenAlexW3108692462MaRDI QIDQ828897FDOQ828897

Authors: Chiara Tardioli, Davide Farnocchia, Massimiliano Vasile, Steve R. Chesley 

Publication date: 5 May 2021

Published in: Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We present an approach to estimate an upper bound for the impact probability of a potentially hazardous asteroid when part of the force model depends on unknown parameters whose statistical distribution needs to be assumed. As case study we consider Apophis' risk assessment for the 2036 and 2068 keyholes based on information available as of 2013. Within the framework of epistemic uncertainties, under the independence and non-correlation assumption, we assign parametric families of distributions to the physical properties of Apophis that define the Yarkovsky perturbation and in turn the future orbital evolution of the asteroid. We find $mIPleq5imes10^{-5}$ for the 2036 keyhole and $mIPleq1.6imes10^{-5}$ for the 2068 keyhole. These upper bounds are largely conservative choices due to the rather wide range of statistical distributions that we explored.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2011.13632

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zbMATH Keywords

epistemic uncertaintyasteroidsimpact probability

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Celestial mechanics (70F15) Collisions in celestial mechanics, regularization (70F16)

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• Risks for poisoning of coastal and inland population due to asteroid impacts in southern regions of Black sea
• Verified propagation of imprecise probabilities in non-linear ODEs
• Use of the semilinear method to predict the impact corridor on ground
• The near Earth asteroid hazard and mitigation
• Application of the mathematical models used for estimating the impact probability of asteroids 99942 Apophis and 2011 AG5
• Collision probability for Earth-crossing asteroids using orbital ranging

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