A random tunnel number one 3-manifold does not fiber over the circle
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Abstract: We address the question: how common is it for a 3-manifold to fiber over the circle? One motivation for considering this is to give insight into the fairly inscrutable Virtual Fibration Conjecture. For the special class of 3-manifolds with tunnel number one, we provide compelling theoretical and experimental evidence that fibering is a very rare property. Indeed, in various precise senses it happens with probability 0. Our main theorem is that this is true for a measured lamination model of random tunnel number one 3-manifolds. The first ingredient is an algorithm of K Brown which can decide if a given tunnel number one 3-manifold fibers over the circle. Following the lead of Agol, Hass and W Thurston, we implement Brown's algorithm very efficiently by working in the context of train tracks/interval exchanges. To analyze the resulting algorithm, we generalize work of Kerckhoff to understand the dynamics of splitting sequences of complete genus 2 interval exchanges. Combining all of this with a "magic splitting sequence" and work of Mirzakhani proves the main theorem. The 3-manifold situation contrasts markedly with random 2-generator 1-relator groups; in particular, we show that such groups "fiber" with probability strictly between 0 and 1.
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Cited in
(21)- Algorithmic recognition of infinite cyclic extensions
- On subgroup separability of free‐by‐cyclic and deficiency 1 groups
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- Groups acting on CAT(0) cube complexes with uniform exponential growth
- Almost all one-relator groups with at least three generators are residually finite.
- ℓ2$\ell ^2$‐Betti numbers and coherence of random groups
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- Quantum invariants of random 3-manifolds
- Experimental Statistics for Mirzakhani’s Theorem
- On the asymptotics of visible elements and homogeneous equations in surface groups.
- Two-generator one-relator groups and marked polytopes
- Random knots using Chebyshev billiard table diagrams
- Dynamics of non-classical interval exchanges
- Thurston norms of tunnel number-one manifolds
- Finite covers of random 3-manifolds
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- Random equations in free groups.
- Dehn filling and the geometry of unknotting tunnels
- Harmonic measures for distributions with finite support on the mapping class group are singular
- Thurston norm via Fox calculus
- Random methods in 3-manifold theory
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