A framework for inferring unobserved multistrain epidemic subpopulations using synchronization dynamics
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Publication:887142
DOI10.1007/S11538-015-0091-7zbMATH Open1335.92092arXiv1410.8339OpenAlexW1095874414WikidataQ26700103 ScholiaQ26700103MaRDI QIDQ887142FDOQ887142
Authors: Eric Forgoston, Leah B. Shaw, Ira B. Schwartz 
Publication date: 28 October 2015
Published in: Bulletin of Mathematical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)
Abstract: A new method is proposed to infer unobserved epidemic sub-populations by exploiting the synchronization properties of multistrain epidemic models. A model for dengue fever is driven by simulated data from secondary infective populations. Primary infective populations in the driven system synchronize to the correct values from the driver system. Most hospital cases of dengue are secondary infections, so this method provides a way to deduce unobserved primary infection levels. We derive center manifold equations that relate the driven system to the driver system and thus motivate the use of synchronization to predict unobserved primary infectives. Synchronization stability between primary and secondary infections is demonstrated through numerical measurements of conditional Lyapunov exponents and through time series simulations.
Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1410.8339
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