A framework for inferring unobserved multistrain epidemic subpopulations using synchronization dynamics

DOI10.1007/S11538-015-0091-7MaRDI QIDQ887142zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Eric Forgoston, Leah B. Shaw, Ira B. Schwartz

Publication date 28 October 2015

Published in Bulletin of Mathematical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1410.8339, https://scholarworks.wm.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1960&context=aspubs

zbMATH Keywords

synchronizationcenter manifoldsinferring unobserved populationsmultistrain disease models

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30)

Abstract: A new method is proposed to infer unobserved epidemic sub-populations by exploiting the synchronization properties of multistrain epidemic models. A model for dengue fever is driven by simulated data from secondary infective populations. Primary infective populations in the driven system synchronize to the correct values from the driver system. Most hospital cases of dengue are secondary infections, so this method provides a way to deduce unobserved primary infection levels. We derive center manifold equations that relate the driven system to the driver system and thus motivate the use of synchronization to predict unobserved primary infectives. Synchronization stability between primary and secondary infections is demonstrated through numerical measurements of conditional Lyapunov exponents and through time series simulations.

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Cited in

(3)

• Parameter estimation based synchronization for an epidemic model with application to tuberculosis in Cameroon
• Spreading dynamics and synchronization behavior of periodic diseases on complex networks
• Using dimension reduction to improve outbreak predictability of multistrain diseases

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