Accurate noise projection for reduced stochastic epidemic models

DOI10.1063/1.3247350MaRDI QIDQ5250381zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Eric Forgoston, Lora Billings, Ira B. Schwartz

Publication date 19 May 2015

Published in Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/0903.1038, http://europepmc.org/articles/pmc2780467

zbMATH Keywords

Langevin equationMarkov processstochastic susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered epidemiological model

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Ordinary differential equations and systems with randomness (34F05) Stochastic ordinary differential equations (aspects of stochastic analysis) (60H10) Epidemiology (92D30)

Abstract: We consider a stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model. Through the use of a normal form coordinate transform, we are able to analytically derive the stochastic center manifold along with the associated, reduced set of stochastic evolution equations. The transformation correctly projects both the dynamics and the noise onto the center manifold. Therefore, the solution of this reduced stochastic dynamical system yields excellent agreement, both in amplitude and phase, with the solution of the original stochastic system for a temporal scale that is orders of magnitude longer than the typical relaxation time. This new method allows for improved time series prediction of the number of infectious cases when modeling the spread of disease in a population. Numerical solutions of the fluctuations of the SEIR model are considered in the infinite population limit using a Langevin equation approach, as well as in a finite population simulated as a Markov process.

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Cited in

(7)

• Stochastic amplification in an epidemic model with seasonal forcing
• Most probable dynamics of a genetic regulatory network under stable Lévy noise
• Set-based corral control in stochastic dynamical systems: Making almost invariant sets more invariant
• Predicting unobserved exposures from seasonal epidemic data
• Stochastic bifurcations of group-invariant solutions for a generalized stochastic Zakharov-Kuznetsov equation
• Ruelle-Pollicott resonances of stochastic systems in reduced state space. Part I: Theory
• A framework for inferring unobserved multistrain epidemic subpopulations using synchronization dynamics

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