A Bayesian spatiotemporal model for reconstructing climate from multiple pollen records

DOI10.1214/15-AOAS832zbMATH Open1454.62448arXiv1511.01639WikidataQ63970709 ScholiaQ63970709MaRDI QIDQ902894FDOQ902894

Siim Veski, Heikki Seppä, Liisa Ilvonen, Lasse Holmström

Publication date: 4 January 2016

Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Holocene (the last 12,000 years) temperature variation, including the transition out of the last Ice Age to a warmer climate, is reconstructed at multiple locations in southern Finland, Sweden and Estonia based on pollen fossil data from lake sediment cores. A novel Bayesian statistical approach is proposed that allows the reconstructed temperature histories to interact through shared environmental response parameters and spatial dependence. The prior distribution for past temperatures is partially based on numerical climate simulation. The features in the reconstructions are consistent with the quantitative climate reconstructions based on more commonly used reconstruction techniques. The results suggest that the novel spatio-temporal approach can provide quantitative reconstructions that are smoother, less uncertain and generally more realistic than the site-specific individual reconstructions.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1511.01639

zbMATH Keywords

regressionspace-time modelingBayesian modelingpaleoclimatetemperature proxy

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Bayesian inference (62F15) Inference from spatial processes (62M30) Applications of statistics to environmental and related topics (62P12) Geostatistics (86A32)

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Cited In (5)

• A Bayesian multinomial regression model for palaeoclimate reconstruction with time uncertainty
• Statistical challenges in estimating past climate changes
• A Bayesian multinomial regression model for paleoclimate reconstruction with time uncertainty
• Rejoinder
• A review of statistics in palaeoenvironmental research

Uses Software

• spBayes
• BayesDA

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