Algorithmic calculation of the optimality probability of decision rules

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Publication:970494





This paper studies the problem of choice between two alternatives, one of which is truly the best. The choice is based on preferences elicited by a group of decision makers. The skills of the individual decision makers, given by the probabilities of correctly identifying the best option, are assumed to be independently drawn from a known distribution. A method to compute the probability of a rule maximizing the probability of choosing the best option among the weighted average majority rules is presented. A special algorithm is provided for the case of the log odds of the skills being exponentially distributed.











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