Changing approaches of prosecutors towards juvenile repeated sex-offenders: a Bayesian evalua\-tion

DOI10.1214/09-AOAS295MaRDI QIDQ993255zbMATH OpenWikidataFDO

Authors Dipankar Bandyopadhyay, Debajyoti Sinha, Elizabeth Letourneau, Stuart R. Lipsitz

Publication date 10 September 2010

Published in The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1011.1999

zbMATH Keywords

bridge densitychange-pointDirichlet priorMarkov chain Monte Carlo

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Generalized linear models (logistic models) (62J12) Applications of statistics to social sciences (62P25) Applications of statistics (62P99) Numerical analysis or methods applied to Markov chains (65C40)

Abstract: Existing state-wide data bases on prosecutors' decisions about juvenile offenders are important, yet often un-explored resources for understanding changes in patterns of judicial decisions over time. We investigate the extent and nature of change in judicial behavior toward juveniles following the enactment of a new set of mandatory registration policies between 1992 and 1996 via analyzing the data on prosecutors' decisions of moving forward for youths repeatedly charged with sexual violence in South Carolina. To analyze this longitudinal binary data, we use a random effects logistic regression model via incorporating an unknown change-point year. For convenient physical interpretation, our models allow the proportional odds interpretation of effects of the explanatory variables and the change-point year with and without conditioning on the youth-specific random effects. As a consequence, the effects of the unknown change-point year and other factors can be interpreted as changes in both within youth and population averaged odds of moving forward. Using a Bayesian paradigm, we consider various prior opinions about the unknown year of the change in the pattern of prosecutors' decision. Based on the available data, we make posteriori conclusions about whether a change-point has occurred between 1992 and 1996 (inclusive), evaluate the degree of confidence about the year of change-point, estimate the magnitude of the effects of the change-point and other factors, and investigate other provocative questions about patterns of prosecutors' decisions over time.

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Cites work

• Adaptive Rejection Sampling for Gibbs Sampling
• Bayes and empirical Bayes methods for data analysis.
• Bayesian Measures of Model Complexity and Fit
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 1911984 (Why is no real title available?)
• Matching conditional and marginal shapes in binary random intercept models using a bridge distribution function
• Model Selection and Multimodel Inference
• Sampling-Based Approaches to Calculating Marginal Densities

Cited in

(4)

• Sentencing convicted felons in the United States: a Bayesian analysis using multilevel covariates. (With discussion and rejoinder)
• Estimating systematic continuous‐time trends in recidivism using a non‐Gaussian panel data model
• Bayesian analysis of Turkish Income and Living Conditions data, using clustered longitudinal ordinal modelling with Bridge distributed random effects
• Marginally interpretable spatial logistic regression with bridge processes

Describes a project that uses

Uses Software

• BayesDA
• WinBUGS

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