Spatial-temporal mesoscale modeling of rainfall intensity using gage and radar data

DOI10.1214/08-AOAS166zbMATH Open1168.62103arXiv0901.3478MaRDI QIDQ999645FDOQ999645

Authors: Montserrat Fuentes, Brian J. Reich, Gyuwon Lee 

Publication date: 10 February 2009

Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Gridded estimated rainfall intensity values at very high spatial and temporal resolution levels are needed as main inputs for weather prediction models to obtain accurate precipitation forecasts, and to verify the performance of precipitation forecast models. These gridded rainfall fields are also the main driver for hydrological models that forecast flash floods, and they are essential for disaster prediction associated with heavy rain. Rainfall information can be obtained from rain gages that provide relatively accurate estimates of the actual rainfall values at point-referenced locations, but they do not characterize well enough the spatial and temporal structure of the rainfall fields. Doppler radar data offer better spatial and temporal coverage, but Doppler radar measures effective radar reflectivity ($Ze$) rather than rainfall rate ($R$). Thus, rainfall estimates from radar data suffer from various uncertainties due to their measuring principle and the conversion from $Ze$ to $R$. We introduce a framework to combine radar reflectivity and gage data, by writing the different sources of rainfall information in terms of an underlying unobservable spatial temporal process with the true rainfall values. We use spatial logistic regression to model the probability of rain for both sources of data in terms of the latent true rainfall process. We characterize the different sources of bias and error in the gage and radar data and we estimate the true rainfall intensity with its posterior predictive distribution, conditioning on the observed data.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/0901.3478

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zbMATH Keywords

nonstationarityconditionally autoregressive modelsfull symmetryrainfall modellingspatial logistic regressionspatial-temporal models

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH) (62M10) Inference from spatial processes (62M30) Applications of statistics to environmental and related topics (62P12) Geostatistics (86A32) Meteorology and atmospheric physics (86A10)

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Cited In (16)

• Modelling categorized levels of precipitation
• Comments on: Assessing probabilistic forecasts of multivariate quantities, with an application to ensemble predictions of surface winds
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Spatial-temporal rainfall modelling for flood risk estimation
• A Kernel-Based Spatio-Temporal Dynamical Model for Nowcasting Weather Radar Reflectivities
• A variational inference-based heteroscedastic Gaussian process approach for simulation metamodeling
• A dynamic nonstationary spatio-temporal model for short term prediction of precipitation
• A spatio-temporal modeling framework for weather radar image data in tropical southeast Asia
• Estimating atmospheric motion winds from satellite image data using space-time drift models
• Bayesian analysis of nonnegative data using dependency-extended two-part models
• Special section on statistics in the atmospheric sciences
• An adaptive spatial model for precipitation data from multiple satellites over large regions
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• Rain Attenuation Prediction Model for Satellite Communications in Tropical Regions
• Statistical downscaling with spatial misalignment: application to wildland fire \(\mathrm{PM}_{2.5}\) concentration forecasting
• A physically-based radar calibration method for improved rainfall estimation: application to the Fort-Collins flash flood of 1997

Uses Software

• R

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