Estimating exposure response functions using ambient pollution concentrations

DOI10.1214/08-AOAS177zbMATH Open1168.62397arXiv0710.5805MaRDI QIDQ999660FDOQ999660

Authors: Gavin Shaddick, Duncan Lee, James V. Zidek, Ruth Salway 

Publication date: 10 February 2009

Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: This paper presents an approach to estimating the health effects of an environmental hazard. The approach is general in nature, but is applied here to the case of air pollution. It uses a computer model involving ambient pollution and temperature inputs, to simulate the exposures experienced by individuals in an urban area, whilst incorporating the mechanisms that determine exposures. The output from the model comprises a set of daily exposures for a sample of individuals from the population of interest. These daily exposures are approximated by parametric distributions, so that the predictive exposure distribution of a randomly selected individual can be generated. These distributions are then incorporated into a hierarchical Bayesian framework (with inference using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation) in order to examine the relationship between short-term changes in exposures and health outcomes, whilst making allowance for long-term trends, seasonality, the effect of potential confounders and the possibility of ecological bias. The paper applies this approach to particulate pollution (PM${}_{10}$) and respiratory mortality counts for seniors in greater London ($geq$65 years) during 1997. Within this substantive epidemiological study, the effects on health of ambient concentrations and (estimated) personal exposures are compared.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/0710.5805

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zbMATH Keywords

air pollutionBayesian hierarchical modelsenvironmental epidemiologypersonal exposure simulator

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Numerical analysis or methods applied to Markov chains (65C40) Applications of statistics to environmental and related topics (62P12)

Cites Work

• Bayesian data analysis.
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• Prior distributions for variance parameters in hierarchical models (Comment on article by Browne and Draper)
• Modelling Daily Multivariate Pollutant Data at Multiple Sites
• A Statistical Framework for Ecological and Aggregate Studies
• A measurement error model for time-series studies of air pollution and mortality
• Estimating exposure response functions using ambient pollution concentrations
• Generalized additive distributed lag models: quantifying mortality displacement
• A hybrid model for reducing ecological bias

Cited In (20)

• A probabilistic approach to exposure risk assessment
• Statistical Methods to Evaluate Health Effects Associated with Major Sources of Air Pollution: A Case-Study of Breathing Patterns During Exposure to Concentrated Boston Air particles
• Relating Ambient Particulate Matter Concentration Levels to Mortality Using an Exposure Simulator
• Bayesian Distributed Lag Models: Estimating Effects of Particulate Matter Air Pollution on Daily Mortality
• Health-exposure modeling and the ecological fallacy
• Quantifying personal exposure to air pollution from smartphone-based location data
• Testing ambient pollution instruments with heterogeneous agents
• A statistical modeling approach for air quality data based on physical dispersion processes and its application to ozone modeling
• Individual Toluene Exposure in Rotary Printing: Increasing Accuracy of Estimation by Linear Models Based on Protocols of Daily Activity and Other Measures
• Modeling hourly ozone concentration fields
• An informative Bayesian structural equation model to assess source-specific health effects of air pollution
• Air pollution and health in Scotland: a multicity study
• Estimating exposure response functions using ambient pollution concentrations
• Estimating the acute health effects of coarse particulate matter accounting for exposure measurement error
• Special section on statistics in the atmospheric sciences
• Spatial modeling of air pollution in studies of its short-term health effects
• A causal exposure response function with local adjustment for confounding: estimating health effects of exposure to low levels of ambient fine particulate matter
• A measurement error model for time-series studies of air pollution and mortality
• Assessing the association between environmental exposures and human health
• Accounting for temperature when modeling population health risk due to air pollution

Uses Software

• BayesDA

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