A Boolean delay equation model of colliding cascades. II: Prediction of critical transitions (Q1870245)

The Boolean delay equations described in the first part of the paper [ibid. 111, 815--837 (2003; Zbl 1018.37010) reviewed above] are merged with the physical notion of colliding cascades to describe abrupt overall changes due to the interaction between cascades of loading (direct cascades) and inverse cascades of failures. The model is used for earthquake prediction, with heuristic constrains taken from known seismic phenomena. Four types of premonitory seismicity patterns that have been identified in observations are seen in the model: rise in earthquake clustering; rise of earthquake intensity; rise of earthquake correlation range; changes in the size distribution of earthquakes.