The binomial ideal of the intersection axiom for conditional probabilities

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Abstract: The binomial ideal associated with the intersection axiom of conditional probability is shown to be radical and is expressed as intersection of toric prime ideals. This resolves a conjecture in algebraic statistics due to Cartwright and Engstr"om.


This paper concerns algebraic statistics, the intersection axiom of conditional probability is translated into an algebraic geometric setting. Consider three random discrete finite variables \(X_i, i=1,\dots,3\) taking values in the sets \( [r_i]:=\{ 1,\dots,r_i\}\) and let \(p_{ijk}\) be the unknown probability: \(P(X_1=i,X_2=j,X_3=k)\), Let define the following ideal \(I_{\mathcal M}\subset K[p_{ijk}]\); \[ I_{\mathcal M}=(p_{ijk}p_{i'j'k}-p_{ij'k}p_{i'jk}: i,i'\in [r_1], j,j'\in [r_2],k\in [r_3])+ \] \[ (p_{ijk}p_{i'jk'}-p_{ijk'}p_{i'jk}: i,i'\in [r_1], j\in [r_2],k,k'\in [r_3]). \] The main result of this paper is to give the primary decomposition of the ideal \(I_{\mathcal M}\) in terms of some graphs, answering a question by Cartwright and Engstrom. The reader interested in this paper should read the paper [\textit{J. Herzog}, et al. Binomial edge Ideals and conditional independence statement. \url{arXiv:0909.4717}].





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