The inelastic market hypothesis: a microstructural interpretation

DOI10.1080/14697688.2022.2068052MaRDI QIDQ5041659zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

Publication date 14 October 2022

Published in Quantitative Finance (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2108.00242

zbMATH Keywords

financial market fluctuationsmetaordersmicrostructural effects

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Heterogeneous agent models (91B69) Financial markets (91G15)

Abstract: We attempt to reconcile Gabaix and Koijen's (GK) recent Inelastic Market Hypothesis (IMH) with the order-driven view of markets that emerged within the microstructure literature in the past 20 years. We review the most salient empirical facts and arguments that give credence to the idea that market price fluctuations are mostly due to order flow, whether informed or non-informed. We show that the Latent Liquidity Theory of price impact makes a precise prediction for GK's multiplier $M$, which measures by how many dollars, on average, the market value of a company goes up if one buys one dollar worth of its stocks. Our central result is that $M$ is of order unity, as found by GK, and increases with the volatility of the stock and decreases with the fraction of the market cap. traded daily. We discuss several empirical results suggesting that the lion's share of volatility is due to trading activity. We argue that the IMH holds for all asset classes, beyond the case of stock markets considered by GK.

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Cites work

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Cited in

(5)

• Market Microstructure Invariance: Empirical Hypotheses
• Calibrating doubly-robust estimators with unbalanced treatment assignment
• Discretization of continuous-time arbitrage strategies in financial markets with fractional Brownian motion
• The ‘double’ square-root law: evidence for the mechanical origin of market impact using Tokyo stock exchange data
• The subtle interplay between square-root impact, order imbalance & volatility: a unifying framework

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