Using dimension reduction to improve outbreak predictability of multistrain diseases

DOI10.1007/S00285-007-0074-XMaRDI QIDQ938067zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Leah B. Shaw, Lora Billings, Ira B. Schwartz

Publication date 18 August 2008

Published in Journal of Mathematical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/nlin/0607022, http://europepmc.org/articles/pmc7080105

zbMATH Keywords

center manifold analysisstochastic perturbations

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Qualitative investigation and simulation of ordinary differential equation models (34C60) Medical epidemiology (92C60)

Abstract: Multistrain diseases have multiple distinct coexisting serotypes (strains). For some diseases, such as dengue fever, the serotypes interact by antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), in which infection with a single serotype is asymptomatic, but contact with a second serotype leads to higher viral load and greater infectivity. We present and analyze a dynamic compartmental model for multiple serotypes exhibiting ADE. Using center manifold techniques, we show how the dynamics rapidly collapses to a lower dimensional system. Using the constructed reduced model, we can explain previously observed synchrony between certain classes of primary and secondary infectives (Schwartz et al., Phys. Rev. E 72: 066201, 2005). Additionally, we show numerically that the center manifold equations apply even to noisy systems. Both deterministic and stochastic versions of the model enable prediction of asymptomatic individuals that are difficult to track during an epidemic. We also show how this technique may be applicable to other multistrain disease models, such as those with cross-immunity.

Recommendations

• Analysis of an asymmetric two-strain dengue model
• The dynamics of antibody dependent enhancement in multi-strain diseases with vaccination
• A framework for inferring unobserved multistrain epidemic subpopulations using synchronization dynamics
• Bifurcation analysis of a family of multi-strain epidemiology models
• Torus bifurcations, isolas and chaotic attractors in a simple dengue fever model with ADE and temporary cross immunity

Cites work

• Applications of centre manifold theory
• Coexistence of different serotypes of dengue virus
• Competitive exclusion in a vector-host model for the dengue fever
• Epidemiological models with age structure, proportionate mixing, and cross-immunity
• The dynamics of cocirculating influenza strains conferring partial cross-immunity
• The onset of oscillatory dynamics in models of multiple disease strains

Cited in

(7)

• The effect of antibody-dependent enhancement, cross immunity, and vector population on the dynamics of dengue fever
• Risk management, signal processing and econometrics: a new tool for forecasting the risk of disease outbreaks
• Analysis of a stage-structured dengue model
• Vaccinations in disease models with antibody-dependent enhancement
• Predicting unobserved exposures from seasonal epidemic data
• Maximal sensitive dependence and the optimal path to epidemic extinction
• A framework for inferring unobserved multistrain epidemic subpopulations using synchronization dynamics

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