Maximal sensitive dependence and the optimal path to epidemic extinction
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Publication:644398
DOI10.1007/S11538-010-9537-0zbMATH Open1226.92062arXiv1003.0912OpenAlexW2097932579WikidataQ30498657 ScholiaQ30498657MaRDI QIDQ644398FDOQ644398
Authors: Eric Forgoston, Simone Bianco, Leah B. Shaw, Ira B. Schwartz 
Publication date: 4 November 2011
Published in: Bulletin of Mathematical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)
Abstract: Extinction of an epidemic or a species is a rare event that occurs due to a large, rare stochastic fluctuation. Although the extinction process is dynamically unstable, it follows an optimal path that maximizes the probability of extinction. We show that the optimal path is also directly related to the finite-time Lyapunov exponents of the underlying dynamical system in that the optimal path displays maximum sensitivity to initial conditions. We consider several stochastic epidemic models, and examine the extinction process in a dynamical systems framework. Using the dynamics of the finite-time Lyapunov exponents as a constructive tool, we demonstrate that the dynamical systems viewpoint of extinction evolves naturally toward the optimal path.
Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1003.0912
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Cited In (15)
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- Computing the optimal path in stochastic dynamical systems
- A Primer on Noise-Induced Transitions in Applied Dynamical Systems
- Slip Rates and Slip Modes in an Actively Mode-Locked Laser
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- Maximal sensitive dependence and the optimal path to epidemic extinction
- First passage times and minimum actions for a stochastic minimal bistable system
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