Maximal sensitive dependence and the optimal path to epidemic extinction

DOI10.1007/S11538-010-9537-0MaRDI QIDQ644398zbMATHOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Eric Forgoston, Simone Bianco, Leah B. Shaw, Ira B. Schwartz

Publication date 4 November 2011

Published in Bulletin of Mathematical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1003.0912

zbMATH Keywords

Lyapunov exponentspath integralsstochastic dynamical systems

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Dynamical systems in biology (37N25) Random dynamical systems (37H99)

Abstract: Extinction of an epidemic or a species is a rare event that occurs due to a large, rare stochastic fluctuation. Although the extinction process is dynamically unstable, it follows an optimal path that maximizes the probability of extinction. We show that the optimal path is also directly related to the finite-time Lyapunov exponents of the underlying dynamical system in that the optimal path displays maximum sensitivity to initial conditions. We consider several stochastic epidemic models, and examine the extinction process in a dynamical systems framework. Using the dynamics of the finite-time Lyapunov exponents as a constructive tool, we demonstrate that the dynamical systems viewpoint of extinction evolves naturally toward the optimal path.

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Cited in

(15)

• Maximal sensitive dependence and the optimal path to epidemic extinction
• Noise-induced tipping under periodic forcing: Preferred tipping phase in a non-adiabatic forcing regime
• Analysis and control of pre-extinction dynamics in stochastic populations
• A Primer on Noise-Induced Transitions in Applied Dynamical Systems
• Computing the optimal path in stochastic dynamical systems
• Tipping in a low-dimensional model of a tropical cyclone
• Detecting and resetting tipping points to create more HIV post-treatment controllers with bifurcation and sensitivity analysis
• Seasonal forcing in stochastic epidemiology models
• Extinction window of mean field branching annihilating random walk
• Slip rates and slip modes in an actively mode-locked laser
• Hamiltonian analysis of subcritical stochastic epidemic dynamics
• Precise estimates of persistence time for SIS infections in heterogeneous populations
• First passage times and minimum actions for a stochastic minimal bistable system
• An iterative action minimizing method for computing optimal paths in stochastic dynamical systems
• Most probable transition paths in piecewise-smooth stochastic differential equations

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