Moderate deviations and extinction of an epidemic

DOI10.1214/20-EJP428zbMATH Open1445.60022arXiv1905.08986MaRDI QIDQ2184584FDOQ2184584

Authors: Etienne Pardoux 

Publication date: 29 May 2020

Published in: Electronic Journal of Probability (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Consider an epidemic model with a constant flux of susceptibles, in a situation where the corresponding deterministic epidemic model has a unique stable endemic equilibrium. For the associated stochastic model, whose law of large numbers limit is the deterministic model, the disease free equilibrium is an absorbing state, which is reached soon or later by the process. However, for a large population size, i.e. when the stochastic model is close to its deterministic limit, the time needed for the stochastic perturbations to stop the epidemic may be enormous. In this paper, we discuss how the Central Limit Theorem, Moderate and Large Deviations allow us to give estimates of the extinction time of the epidemic, depending upon the size of the population.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.08986

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zbMATH Keywords

central limit theoremlarge deviationsmoderate deviationsextension of an epidemic

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Large deviations (60F10) Central limit and other weak theorems (60F05)

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Cited In (6)

• Strong Gaussian approximation of metastable density-dependent Markov chains on large time scales
• A spatial stochastic epidemic model: law of large numbers and central limit theorem
• Large deviations for infectious diseases models
• Large and moderate deviation principles for susceptible-infected-removed epidemic in a random environment
• Maximal sensitive dependence and the optimal path to epidemic extinction
• Title not available (Why is that?)

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