Stochastic epidemics: The probability of extinction of an infectious disease at the end of a major outbreak

DOI10.1007/S002850050077MaRDI QIDQ1365083zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors O. A. van Herwaarden

Publication date 28 August 1997

Published in Journal of Mathematical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1007/s002850050077

zbMATH Keywords

Fokker-Planck equationsingular perturbationsstochastic SIR-model

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of Brownian motions and diffusion theory (population genetics, absorption problems, etc.) (60J70) Epidemiology (92D30)

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Cited in

(16)

• Stochastic epidemics: The expected duration of the endemic period in higher dimensional models
• Modeling transmission of directly transmitted infectious diseases using colored stochastic Petri nets
• Intervention to maximise the probability of epidemic fade-out
• Eradication-resolution dynamics with stochastic flare-ups
• Stochastic contagion models without immunity: their long term behaviour and the optimal level of treatment
• Stochastic epidemics: Major outbreaks and the duration of the endemic period
• The almost sure stability for uncertain delay differential equations based on normal Lipschitz conditions
• Moderate deviations and extinction of an epidemic
• A stochastic SIR model on a graph with epidemiological and population dynamics occurring over the same time scale
• The interplay between models and public health policies: regional control for a class of spatially structured epidemics \textit{(think globally, act locally)}
• A semi-stochastic model for Salmonella infection in a multi-group herd
• Breakdown of a chemostat exposed to stochastic noise
• The probability of epidemic fade-out is non-monotonic in transmission rate for the Markovian SIR model with demography
• Probability of a disease outbreak in stochastic multipatch epidemic models
• WKB theory of large deviations in stochastic populations
• Uniform asymptotic approximations for the phase plane trajectories of the SIR model with vital dynamics

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