On the Time to Extinction in Recurrent Epidemics

DOI10.1111/1467-9868.00178zbMATH Open0917.92023OpenAlexW2001842053MaRDI QIDQ4237752FDOQ4237752

Ingemar Nåsell

Publication date: 6 July 1999

Published in: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Statistical Methodology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9868.00178

zbMATH Keywords

diffusion approximationpersistence thresholdquasi-stationary distributioncritical community sizetime to extinctionrecurrent epidemicsstochastic fade-outMartini model

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Applications of Brownian motions and diffusion theory (population genetics, absorption problems, etc.) (60J70)

Cited In (75)

• Precise estimates of persistence time for SIS infections in heterogeneous populations
• Stochastic models for mainland-island metapopulations in static and dynamic landscapes
• Moderate deviations and extinction of an epidemic
• Equilibrium properties of the spatial SIS model as a point pattern dynamics -- how is infection distributed over space?
• Approximating the quasi-stationary distribution of the SIS model for endemic infection
• Local and global approaches to the problem of Poincaré recurrences. Applications in nonlinear dynamics
• On simulating strongly interacting, stochastic population models. II: Multiple compartments
• Approximating time to extinction for endemic infection models
• Modeling transmission of directly transmitted infectious diseases using colored stochastic Petri nets
• Quasi-stationary and ratio of expectations distributions: a comparative study
• Extinction times and phase transitions for spatially structured closed epidemics.
• Sustained oscillations in stochastic systems
• Estimating variability in models for recurrent epidemics: assessing the use of moment closure techniques
• SIR model on a dynamical network and the endemic state of an infectious disease
• Critical scaling for the SIS stochastic epidemic
• Inference for ecological dynamical systems: a case study of two endemic diseases
• Spatial heterogeneity and the persistence of infectious diseases
• Calculating the time to extinction of a reactivating virus, in particular bovine herpes virus
• Attack rates of seasonal epidemics
• Recurrence conditions for childhood infections
• A stochastic vector-borne epidemic model: quasi-stationarity and extinction
• Stochastic models of some endemic infections
• On the time to extinction for a two-type version of Bartlett's epidemic model
• The probability of epidemic fade-out is non-monotonic in transmission rate for the Markovian SIR model with demography
• On the quasi-stationary distribution of the stochastic logistic epidemic
• Stochastic epidemic models with random environment: quasi-stationarity, extinction and final size
• The effect of population heterogeneities upon spread of infection
• Endemic Behaviour of SIS Epidemics with General Infectious Period Distributions
• On expected durations of birth-death processes, with applications to branching processes and SIS epidemics
• Stochastic dynamics of an SIS epidemic on networks
• Stochastic epidemic models revisited: analysis of some continuous performance measures
• Modeling computer virus prevalence with a susceptible-infected-susceptible model with reintroduction
• Mathematical analysis of an SIS model with imperfect vaccination and backward bifurcation
• Extinction times and moment closure in the stochastic logistic process
• Extinction and quasi-stationarity in the stochastic logistic SIS model.
• A simple approximation of moments of the quasi-equilibrium distribution of an extended stochastic theta-logistic model with non-integer powers
• Stochastic epidemic models: a survey
• Backward bifurcation and global stability in an epidemic model with treatment and vaccination
• Stochastic amplification in an epidemic model with seasonal forcing
• A stochastic SIS infection model incorporating indirect transmission
• Contextual Interventions for Controlling Alcohol Drinking
• Recurrent epidemics in small world networks
• Endemic persistence or disease extinction: The effect of separation into sub-communities
• The role of heterogeneity on the invasion probability of mosquito-borne diseases in multi-host models
• Extinction of disease pathogenesis in infected population and its subsequent recovery: a stochastic approach
• Comparison of deterministic and stochastic SIS and SIR models in discrete time
• Demographic stochasticity in the SDE SIS epidemic model
• The time to extinction for a stochastic SIS-household-epidemic model
• Evolution and persistence of influenza A and other diseases.
• Predicting unobserved exposures from seasonal epidemic data
• Probability analysis of a stochastic SIS epidemic model
• Discrete-time deterministic and stochastic models for the spread of rabies
• A new look at the critical community size for childhood infections
• WKB theory of large deviations in stochastic populations
• A stochastic model for disease transmission in a managed herd, motivated by \textit{Neospora caninum} amongst dairy cattle
• The effect of waning immunity on long-term behaviour of stochastic models for the spread of infection
• A stochastic SIS epidemic with demography: Initial stages and time to extinction
• Discrete stochastic analogs of Erlang epidemic models
• Generality of endemic prevalence formulae
• Stochastic epidemics in dynamic populations: Quasi-stationarity and extinction
• Divide and conquer? Persistence of infectious agents in spatial metapopulations of hosts
• Threshold behavior and exponential ergodicity of an SIR epidemic model: the impact of random jamming and hospital capacity
• Synchronization and extinction in a high-infectivity spatial SIRS with long-range links
• Parametric dependence in model epidemics. I: Contact-related parameters
• A Primer on Noise-Induced Transitions in Applied Dynamical Systems
• SIR model with local and global infective contacts: a deterministic approach and applications
• Model-based estimation of expected time to cholera extinction in Lusaka, Zambia
• When Do Epidemics End? Scientific Insights from Mathematical Modelling Studies
• On the risk of ruin in a SIS type epidemic
• Hierarchical correction of \(p\)-values via an ultrametric tree running Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process
• Insights of infected Schwann cells extinction and inherited randomness in a stochastic model of leprosy
• Threshold behavior in a stochastic SIR epidemic model with logistic birth
• Approximating quasi-stationary behaviour in network-based SIS dynamics
• An alternative to moment closure
• A stochastic SIR model on a graph with epidemiological and population dynamics occurring over the same time scale

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