Hamiltonian analysis of subcritical stochastic epidemic dynamics

DOI10.1155/2017/4253167zbMATH Open1397.92692arXiv1707.00021OpenAlexW2963052054WikidataQ41431741 ScholiaQ41431741MaRDI QIDQ1664525FDOQ1664525

Authors: Lee Worden, Ira B. Schwartz, Simone Bianco, Sarah F. Ackley, Thomas M. Lietman, Travis C. Porco 

Publication date: 27 August 2018

Published in: Computational \& Mathematical Methods in Medicine (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We extend a technique of approximation of the long-term behavior of a supercritical stochastic epidemic model, using the WKB approximation and a Hamiltonian phase space, to the subcritical case. The limiting behavior of the model and approximation are qualitatively different in the subcritical case, requiring a novel analysis of the limiting behavior of the Hamiltonian system away from its deterministic subsystem. This yields a novel, general technique of approximation of the quasistationary distribution of stochastic epidemic and birth-death models, and may lead to techniques for analysis of these models beyond the quasistationary distribution. For a classic SIS model, the approximation found for the quasistationary distribution is very similar to published approximations but not identical. For a birth-death process without depletion of susceptibles, the approximation is exact. Dynamics on the phase plane similar to those predicted by the Hamiltonian analysis are demonstrated in cross-sectional data from trachoma treatment trials in Ethiopia, in which declining prevalences are consistent with subcritical epidemic dynamics.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1707.00021

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zbMATH Keywords

Hamiltonian analysissubcritical stochastic epidemic dynamics

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Stochastic partial differential equations (aspects of stochastic analysis) (60H15) Applications of branching processes (60J85)

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Cited In (1)

• Multi-Hamiltonian structure of the epidemics model accounting for vaccinations and a suitable test for the accuracy of its numerical solvers

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