Virus Dynamics on Starlike Graphs

Authors Thealexa Becker, Alexander Greaves-Tunnell, Aryeh Kontorovich, Steven J. Miller, Pradeep Ravikumar, Karen Shen

Publication date 2 November 2011

Phase transitions (general) in equilibrium statistical mechanics (82B26) Molecular structure (graph-theoretic methods, methods of differential topology, etc.) (92E10) Applications of graph theory to circuits and networks (94C15)

Abstract: The field of epidemiology has presented fascinating and relevant questions for mathematicians, primarily concerning the spread of viruses in a community. The importance of this research has greatly increased over time as its applications have expanded to also include studies of electronic and social networks and the spread of information and ideas. We study virus propagation on a non-linear hub and spoke graph (which models well many airline networks). We determine the long-term behavior as a function of the cure and infection rates, as well as the number of spokes n. For each n we prove the existence of a critical threshold relating the two rates. Below this threshold, the virus always dies out; above this threshold, all non-trivial initial conditions iterate to a unique non-trivial steady state. We end with some generalizations to other networks.

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