Weighted Regret-Based Likelihood: A New Approach to Describing Uncertainty

DOI10.1007/978-3-642-39091-3_23MaRDI QIDQ5326425zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Joseph Y. Halpern

Publication date 5 August 2013

Published in Lecture Notes in Computer Science (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1309.1228

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Axioms; other general questions in probability (60A05) Foundations and philosophical topics in statistics (62A01) Reasoning under uncertainty in the context of artificial intelligence (68T37)

Abstract: Recently, Halpern and Leung suggested representing uncertainty by a weighted set of probability measures, and suggested a way of making decisions based on this representation of uncertainty: maximizing weighted regret. Their paper does not answer an apparently simpler question: what it means, according to this representation of uncertainty, for an event E to be more likely than an event E'. In this paper, a notion of comparative likelihood when uncertainty is represented by a weighted set of probability measures is defined. It generalizes the ordering defined by probability (and by lower probability) in a natural way; a generalization of upper probability can also be defined. A complete axiomatic characterization of this notion of regret-based likelihood is given.

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Cited in

(7)

• A representation theorem for minmax regret policies
• Indeterminate probabilities on finite sets
• Weighted regret-based likelihood: a new approach to describing uncertainty
• A representation theorem for minmax regret policies
• A foundational justification for a weighted likelihood approach to inference
• The likelihood method for decision under uncertainty
• Weighted sets of probabilities and minimax weighted expected regret: a new approach for representing uncertainty and making decisions

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