Human life is unlimited -- but short (Q1693604): Difference between revisions

The question whether the human lifespan has a finite limit or not is an old controversy, and the authors' contribution to the subject is that they provide a precise definition of the concept of a finite limit. They argue that there are three possibilities founded in extreme value theory: (i) The force of mortality tends to infinity at a finite age, and survival beyond that age is impossible, (ii) the force of mortality is constant after a certain age, e.g., 110 years of age, and life is unlimited but short, and (iii) the force of mortality is decreasing with age (after age 110), and life is unlimited. Furthermore, the authors claim that (ii) is the correct conclusion, given information available today, and they argue that recent contributions in the field that argues for alternative (i) do so based on inappropriate use of statistics, especially inadequate treatment of size-biased sampling. They come to their conclusions by handling the size-biased sampling correctly and by using the Generalized Pareto (GP) distribution as a model for supercentenarian life: Now available data points to the result that the special case of a GP distribution, the exponential (ii), with mean 1.34 years, is the distribution that fits data best. Furthermore, there is no sign of variation in this result with respect to sex, genetic background, lifestyle, etc. However, ten times more women than men reach the age of 110.