A stochastic model for the HIV epidemic in homosexual populations involving age and race (Q1370681)

To understand and to help control the HIV epidemic, many stochastic models for the HIV epidemic in homosexual populations have been developed. However, none of the stochastic models in the literature have ever attempted to take into account effects of many important demographic variables such as age and race. On the other hand, many epidemiological data have shown clearly that age and race have a significant impact on the HIV epidemic; see, for example, the June 1993 surveillance report by CDC. In order to assess effects of age and race on the behavior of the HIV epidemic, we proceed to develop a stochastic model for the HIV epidemic in homosexual populations by taking into account age and race, as well as many other important biological, epidemiological, and clinical features of the HIV epidemic. To account for effects of different mixing patterns, a low risk selection rule is introduced. The model is then formulated in terms of chain multinomial distributions by means of which the means are derived. Some simulation studies by computer indicate clearly that age and race have a significant impact on the HIV epidemic.