Bifurcation thresholds and optimal control in transmission dynamics of arboviral diseases (Q1692121)

The authors propose and analyze a 10-dimensional host-vector compartmental ordinary differential equation model for the dynamics and control of arboviral viruses. The dynamics of the human population is described by a SEIR model, that of the adult vector population is described by a SEI model, while for the immature vectors three stages are considered, namely, eggs, larvae and pupae. The model assumes that the recruitment of susceptible humans is constant and that the pupae become adults at a constant rate. Also, all mortality rates are density-independent. It is determined that there are two disease-free equilibria, the trivial one (a human population free of both disease and vectors) and a more biologically realistic one (a human population free of disease, but not of vectors). The local stability of the disease-free equilibria is determined in terms of two parameters, the basic reproduction number \(\mathcal{R}_0\) and the net reproduction number \(\mathcal{N}\). The biological interpretation of the stability result obtained in this context is that, when \(\mathcal{R}_0<1\), a small number of vectors in the community would not generate large outbreaks, although the disease may still persist. The model is also found to have at most two endemic equilibria (this happens when \(\mathcal{R}_0<1\), under certain conditions), the possible occurrence of bifurcations being then investigated. Effective thresholds for the occurrence of backward bifurcations are determined in terms of the human-to-vector transmission rate, these results being complemented by a numerical investigation. It is also shown that the system does not exhibit bifurcation phenomena in the absence of disease-related death. Five time-dependent control methods are proposed: (imperfect) vaccination, protection from mosquitoes, treatment, mosquito killing and other generic vector control measures, the objective being to minimize the number of infection cases (symptomatic human infections), while keeping the costs of control as low as possible. The necessary conditions to be satisfied by the optimal controls are obtained via the use of Pontryagin principle. Six control strategies combining two or more control methods are investigated, the impact upon disease transmission and the size of the vector population being determined via numerical simulations, an efficiency analysis via an efficiency index defined \textit{ad hoc} being also performed.