A Bayesian view of doubly robust causal inference: Table 1.
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Abstract: In causal inference confounding may be controlled either through regression adjustment in an outcome model, or through propensity score adjustment or inverse probability of treatment weighting, or both. The latter approaches, which are based on modelling of the treatment assignment mechanism and their doubly robust extensions have been difficult to motivate using formal Bayesian arguments, in principle, for likelihood-based inferences, the treatment assignment model can play no part in inferences concerning the expected outcomes if the models are assumed to be correctly specified. On the other hand, forcing dependency between the outcome and treatment assignment models by allowing the former to be misspecified results in loss of the balancing property of the propensity scores and the loss of any double robustness. In this paper, we explain in the framework of misspecified models why doubly robust inferences cannot arise from purely likelihood-based arguments, and demonstrate this through simulations. As an alternative to Bayesian propensity score analysis, we propose a Bayesian posterior predictive approach for constructing doubly robust estimation procedures. Our approach appropriately decouples the outcome and treatment assignment models by incorporating the inverse treatment assignment probabilities in Bayesian causal inferences as importance sampling weights in Monte Carlo integration.
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- A semiparametric modeling approach using Bayesian additive regression trees with an application to evaluate heterogeneous treatment effects
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- Bayesian Causality
- Causal inference in high dimensions: A marriage between Bayesian modeling and good frequentist properties
- A Review of Spatial Causal Inference Methods for Environmental and Epidemiological Applications
- Combining Parametric and Nonparametric Models to Estimate Treatment Effects in Observational Studies
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- Causal inference under mis-specification: adjustment based on the propensity score (with discussion)
- The role of exchangeability in causal inference
- Dynamic treatment regimes using Bayesian additive regression trees for censored outcomes
- On ``Reflections on the concept of optimality of single decision point treatment regimes
- Bayesian estimation of the average treatment effect on the treated using inverse weighting
- Constructing inverse probability weights for institutional comparisons in healthcare
- Bayesian inference for optimal dynamic treatment regimes in practice
- Generalized Bayesian inference for causal effects using the covariate balancing procedure
- Bayesian doubly robust estimation of causal effects for clustered observational data
- Double robust Bayesian inference on average treatment effects
- Weighting, informativeness and causal inference, with an application to rainfall enhancement
- Uncertainty quantification and multi-stage variable selection for personalized treatment regimes
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