A Hierarchical Model of Nonhomogeneous Poisson Processes for Twitter Retweets

DOI10.1080/01621459.2019.1585358MaRDI QIDQ3304823zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Clement Lee, Darren J. Wilkinson

Publication date 3 August 2020

Published in Journal of the American Statistical Association (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.01987, https://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/133318/1/accepted_20190309.pdf

zbMATH Keywords

Bayesian methodsMarkov chain Monte Carlomodel selectionstochastic processes

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Bayesian inference (62F15) Inference from stochastic processes and prediction (62M20) Applications of statistics to social sciences (62P25) Social networks; opinion dynamics (91D30)

Abstract: We present a hierarchical model of non-homogeneous Poisson processes (NHPP) for information diffusion on online social media, in particular Twitter retweets. The retweets of each original tweet are modelled by a NHPP, for which the intensity function is a product of time-decaying components and another component that depends on the follower count of the original tweet author. The latter allows us to explain or predict the ultimate retweet count by a network centrality-related covariate. The inference algorithm enables the Bayes factor to be computed, in order to facilitate model selection. Finally, the model is applied to the retweet data sets of two hashtags.

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Cited in

(7)

• A stochastic model of tweet diffusion on the twitter network
• Marked self-exciting point process modelling of information diffusion on twitter
• Predicting the popularity of tweets using internal and external knowledge: an empirical Bayes type approach
• Modelling of trends in Twitter using retweet graph dynamics
• A Note on Modeling Retweet Cascades on Twitter
• Branching process descriptions of information cascades on Twitter
• Modelling social media contagion using Hawkes processes

Describes a project that uses

Uses Software

• etasFLP

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