Marked self-exciting point process modelling of information diffusion on twitter
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Abstract: Information diffusion occurs on microblogging platforms like Twitter as retweet cascades. When a tweet is posted, it may be retweeted and henceforth further retweeted, and the retweeting process continues iteratively and indefinitely. A natural measure of the popularity of a tweet is the number of retweets it generates. Accurate predictions of tweet popularity can assist Twitter to rank contents more effectively and facilitate the assessment of potential for marketing and campaigning strategies. In this paper, we propose a model called the Marked Self-Exciting Process with Time-Dependent Excitation Function, or MaSEPTiDE for short, to model the retweeting dynamics and to predict the tweet popularity. Our model does not require expensive feature engineering but is capable of leveraging the observed dynamics to accurately predict the future evolution of retweet cascades. We apply our proposed methodology on a large amount of Twitter data and report substantial improvement in prediction performance over existing approaches in the literature.
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Cites work
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Cited in
(14)- A stochastic model of tweet diffusion on the twitter network
- Evolutionary prediction of nonstationary event popularity dynamics of Weibo social network using time-series characteristics
- Predicting the popularity of tweets using internal and external knowledge: an empirical Bayes type approach
- Generalized evolutionary point processes: model specifications and model comparison
- Modelling of trends in Twitter using retweet graph dynamics
- Predicting retweeting behavior based on BPNN in emergency incidents
- A Hierarchical Model of Nonhomogeneous Poisson Processes for Twitter Retweets
- CD-SEIZ: cognition-driven SEIZ compartmental model for the prediction of information cascades on Twitter
- Efficient inference for nonparametric Hawkes processes using auxiliary latent variables
- CasTformer: a novel cascade transformer towards predicting information diffusion
- Point process modeling through a mixture of homogeneous and self-exciting processes
- Modeling the complexity of basketball games using marked mutually exciting point processes
- Mutually exciting point processes for crowdfunding platform dynamics
- Influence network reconstruction from discrete time-series of count data modelled by multidimensional Hawkes processes
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